Canadiens: Analytical Model Isn’t High on the Habs

After a rough last two seasons, the Montreal Canadiens will be looking to take a step forward in their rebuild this year. The appetite for losing in Montreal, especially by the players, has worn thin, and the team is hoping that will translate to better results on the ice. But certain analytical models are not overtly optimistic about the Canadiens going into next year.

JFresh Hockey, a very popular analytical figure on Hockey Twitter, tweeted out his projected standings for next season based on his model. The model has the Canadiens finishing 31st in the league with just 69 points, one more than they had last year. That would obviously not be the step forward the Canadiens are hoping for.

Now, these models are obviously just projections, not an exact science, so you can take this with a grain of salt. However, analytical models like this are usually pretty good at giving us a rough outline as to what to expect. Take Calgary, for instance; that team, on paper, is still a good team, even with the departure of Tyler Toffoli. They underperformed a lot last year, though, and that caused them to miss the playoffs. That, as well as injuries, are unpredictable and not something to be reasonably expected and, therefore, don’t factor into the model.

It’s certainly possible, then, for any team to have a massive jump in the standings in relation to their projection, but this is at least a good starting point. The Canadiens are a young team; their roster is developing, and that isn’t accounted for in the projections either. So, a breakout year from a couple of the sophomores could go a long way. I don’t think it’s a stretch, though, to suggest that as it stands right now, the Canadiens still have a bottom-tier roster until those breakouts occur.

These projections are all still subject to change, as we still have a whole training camp to figure out the final rosters. That and the potential for trades and free-agent signings still occurring can undoubtedly shake up the rankings a little as well. Still, it appears as though the Canadiens will be entering the season as underdogs, with not much optimism surrounding the current on-ice product. With the Canadiens still rebuilding, that’s not all that surprising or upsetting to see, but it does mean the Canadiens will need to prove a lot of people wrong.

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