The Montreal Canadiens own the fifth overall pick in the upcoming NHL Draft and also hold the 31st overall pick which came in a trade with the Florida Panthers.
Canadiens fans watched the Panthers closely all season as they struggled early in the year, and looked like they could finish in the bottom ten of the NHL standings for a while. They got things back on track and barely snuck into the playoffs, but it still looked like that pick would be 17th based on where the Panthers finished in the overall standings.
Their unlikely run to the Stanley Cup Final did no favors for the Canadiens and that pick ended up very close to the end of the first round. Still, the Canadiens will select a highly skilled prospect with a pick they got for Ben Chiarot who was leaving as a free agent anyway, but it could have been much higher.
A similar situation is about to play out with another pick the Canadiens acquired. When the Habs traded for Sean Monahan, they also got the Calgary Flames first round pick in either 2024 or 2025 or possibly even 2026. It gets complicated, but a first round pick is coming to Montreal via Calgary.
The pick acquired with Monahan from the Flames is already tied up in the Matthew Tkachuk trade between the Flames and Panthers. Essentially, if the Panthers 2025 pick is a lottery pick (meaning they miss the playoffs in the 2024-25 season) the Panthers keep it and send their 2026 pick to Calgary instead.
Otherwise, the Panthers pick goes to Calgary and then they have two first round picks and need to hand one over to Montreal. The conditions are…. well, as follows: (from capfriendly.com)
Montreal acquires: 2025 1st round pick (CGY) *
*Conditions: 1. If CGY’s 2024 1st round pick is between 20 and 32, MTL can take that pick instead. Result: TBD (meaning if the Flames pick late in next year’s draft the Canadiens have the option of taking that one, which seems unlikely.)
Scenario: In the event CGY receives FLA’s 2025 1st round pick: (this happens if Florida makes the playoffs in 2025)
1. If both CGY AND FLA’s picks are NOT top 10, MTL will receive the better of the CGY and FLA 2025 1st round picks. Result: TBD (If the Panthers make the playoffs in 2025 and Calgary picks outside the top ten, the Canadiens just get the better of the two picks, which would be 11th at best, and would be 31st at worst if the Flames and Panthers play in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final)
2. If CGY’s pick is top 10, AND FLA’s pick is NOT top 10, MTL receives FLA’s pick. Result: TBD (Calgary are not giving up a top ten pick if Panthers make the playoffs so if they are really bad in 2024-25 and the Panthers aren’t, the Habs get the Panthers pick)
Scenario: In the event CGY does NOT receive FLA’s 1st round pick: (this happens if Florida is bad and miss the playoffs in 2024-25. This would be really good for Canadiens)
Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is NOT top 10
1. MTL will receive the CGY pick, and (If Panthers miss 2025 playoffs, Canadiens get Flames pick)
2. If FLA’s pick is not top 10, is a better pick than CGY’s, and was transferred to another team due to prior conditions, MTL will also receive CGY’s 2025 4th round pick. (long-winded way of saying the Canadiens may get an extra 4th round pick under these specific conditions as well as the Flames 1st round pick in 2025)
Result: TBD
Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is top 10:
1. If CGY’s pick is 1st overall, MTL will receive CGY’s 2025 3rd, and the better of CGY and FLA’s 2026 1st round pick. Result: TBD (meaning if the Panthers miss the playoffs and the Flames win the draft lottery to pick first overall, the Canadiens would not get it from them. Only in this situation would the pick be put off until 2026)
2. If CGY’s pick is 2nd to 10th, MTL receives CGY’s 2025 1st round pick. Result: TBD (absolute best case scenario for Canadiens is Panthers miss the 2025 playoffs and the Flames win the second lottery and Habs get the second overall pick in 2025)
Wow. That’s a lot of wild conditions. Hopefully I was able to draft-splain it somewhat. Essentially, the odd thing about this trade is the upcoming season really doesn’t matter. It is the following year where we have to really want the Panthers to miss the playoffs and keep their own pick in 2025, and we want the Flames to be terrible that season as well, but not win the first pick at the draft lottery.
What is crazy about this situation at this point, is the Flames appear on the verge of tearing down their team and being really bad for the next two seasons possibly. Reports are coming out today that several key players on the Flames roster are looking to get out of town this offseason.
Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported in rapid fire yesterday evening that the Flames are not having much luck re-signing first line center Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin has definitely told the team he wants out, Mikael Backlund is leaning toward not re-signing with the team and Tyler Toffoli has also asked for a trade.
All four of those players have one year remaining on their contract, meaning it is extremely unlikely that any of them will still be Flames in the 2024-25 season.
There is a lot of time between now and the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, but things are shaping up for that to be a rebuilding season for the Flames. Now, we just need the Panthers to miss the playoffs two years from now and that pick acquired for taking on Monahan could be a home run.
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