The Pros and Cons of a Pierre-Luc Dubois Trade

If the Canadiens want to become Cup contenders, they must improve offensively, specifically in their top-six. The fifth overall pick gives them an excellent chance to do that, but so would trading for Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Quebec native is coming off his best season, where he put up 27 goals and 63 points in 73 games this year. At just 24 (25 in June), he’s only 14 months older than Nick Suzuki and appears to be entering his prime. He’d be a welcomed addition of skill to the Canadiens’ top six. And he’s big, too, so that should also satisfy those of you who believe the Canadiens need more size.

But hey, he’s now a pending RFA, and it looks as though he won’t be signing a long-term deal in Winnipeg, so why not wait until he hits the open market? The Habs could offer sheet him or hope he signs a one-year contract that walks him to unrestricted free agency. So why not be patient if he truly desires playing here? The difference between trading for Dubois now and waiting a year or two to grab him in free agency is somewhat significant, at least in terms of how long he’d remain in Montreal.

As a free agent, the best the Habs could offer Dubois is seven years, whereas if the Canadiens owned his rights, they could sign him for eight. An extra year of Dubois might be worth the compensation, especially if the Canadiens can avoid giving up anything too significant. The Canadiens have an abundance of prospects who project to be good middle-six players with potential top-six upside. They also have an extra first-round pick now slated to fall between 29-32nd as opposed to 17th.

Finally, consider the fact that while the Canadiens may be linked to Dubois, the Jets don’t have to be the ones to send him there. If the Jets wanted to move Dubois, I wouldn’t be surprised if multiple teams stepped up to the plate and made an offer, giving the Jets options. While Dubois may want to go to Montreal, joining a cup-contending team in a more forgiving climate than Winnipeg could change his mind. Say a team like Vegas or Dallas jumped into the mix. Both teams are in warmer climates, with quality hockey teams and, perhaps most importantly, no income tax. I can see how that makes Dubois, or any player, change their tune on their previous aspirations.

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Now this isn’t to say these teams have talked or will talk to the Jets about Dubois, but it is something worth considering. Some teams might consider going after Dubois if they think he can help them win. The Jets won’t do the Canadiens a favour. They’re going to take the best offer. If the Canadiens really want Dubois (which hasn’t necessarily been proven to be the case), they might need to deliver an offer for him that proves that. Otherwise, you run the risk of hoping he’ll be available in free agency when he might not. Trading for him now means he’s all yours, and you get an additional year because of it.

Let’s not act as though there are no concerns with trading for Dubois. While he is a skilled forward, one the Canadiens could certainly find a use for, the price must be reasonable in trade and contract negotiations. The Jets can ask, but the Habs will not be giving up the 5th overall pick or Kirby Dach or anyone else they view as a building block for the future. But it will take something significant, especially if the Canadiens are not the only team looking to add him.

The Canadiens are not exactly in the position where they need to be trading young talent for proven players just yet. I like Dubois, but we’re not talking about a 100-point player or even a 40-goal scorer. Now factor in that after you trade for Dubois, you’ll need to give him a contract, which can only be signed July 1st at the earliest. What if he wants an absurd amount of money, a number the Canadiens just don’t want to meet? Does he go to the open market, making the trade a waste of assets? Before you trade for him, you need some kind of assurance it’s worth it.

The other concern? This would be the third team Dubois has joined before even hitting free agency, seemingly forcing his way out of the previous two teams, if he does leave Winnipeg for Montreal. How can you be sure Montreal will be any different? Winnipeg may not be the easiest place to play, but it’s a walk in the park compared to Montreal, especially for a French star like Dubois. The spotlight will be on him from day one, and it will only burn brighter if he struggles; just ask Jonathan Drouin. Can Kent Hughes be sure he’ll want to be here when the going gets tough? You don’t want to acquire this version of Dubois:

I don’t think there is a “right answer” to this, as it’ll really come down to a few things. First, what does the market for Dubois even look like? Are there teams lining up trying to acquire him? Do teams all believe he’s heading to Montreal, effectively scaring them off? Does Montreal even want him badly enough to go out of its way to acquire him, giving up premium assets in the process? All these questions will need to be answered at some point.

I believe you could make an argument for either scenario, trade or free agency, as each will come with risk. The Canadiens could use someone like Dubois, but seeing as they’re currently in a rebuild, I’m not convinced they need to give up assets to do it. That said, I think the Canadiens’ prospect pool, while deep, lacks high-end talent worth hoarding. I’d keep Hutson, Mesar, Farrell, Beck, and Mailloux (mainly for being a RHD) out of trade discussions. Everyone else in the prospect pool is on the table. But I would only be willing to give so much up, and if the Jets ask for too much, I’d just wait until free agency.

I’m sure this trade proposal will be met with scrutiny by some, they always are, but I think it makes sense. The Canadiens have many middle-six upside forwards, and while Kidney had a tremendous QMJHL season, he still looks to fit that mold. The first-round pick, now falling around 29-32, might be more valuable in a trade than adding another prospect of that calibre. And the Canadiens have a surplus of LHD prospects as well, so they can afford to move on from one of them, in this case, Struble. Armia is strictly a cap casualty, so much so that you might need to either add more or remove him to get the Jets to accept. It’d be great if the Canadiens could move his contract somehow.

What do you think? Should the Canadiens trade for Dubois, or should they risk it and wait until he’s a free agent? If you were to trade for Dubois, what would you be willing to give up?

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