Every team has less than ten games left to play this season, meaning we are officially in the home stretch now. And with that, it’s time to take a quick look at where the Montreal Canadiens are in the standings and how that affects their lottery odds. Of course, as we all remember, last season, the Canadiens finished 32nd and had the best odds of selecting first overall, which they ultimately did. Unfortunately, barring a miracle this season, the Habs won’t have the best odds heading into the lottery on May 8th.
Currently, the Canadiens are in 28th place, or fifth last, which gives them an 8.5% chance to select first overall and an 8.8% chance to pick second. All things considered, those are not bad odds at all. But, of course, under the current format, the Habs also have the possibility of falling two spots. And there is a 44.2% chance of picking sixth and a 13.9% chance of selecting 7th, which would obviously be less than ideal. So what does this mean?
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As of right now, the Canadiens are penciled in for 28th place, but with games still to be played, it’s conceivable the Canadiens could still move up or down. Currently, the Canadiens sit ten points up on the Ducks, who are in 29th place. At this point, I feel comfortable saying it’s unlikely the Canadiens will be caught by anyone behind them. It’s looking like 28th place is the worst the Canadiens could finish, but there is still the chance for the Canadiens to move up in the standings and hurt their lottery odds. That means losing as many games as possible or cheering for the Coyotes and Flyers to win is critical, if you are on team tank, of course. That and Sean Farrell’s play might be the two biggest storylines to follow as we close out the season.
Wait, scratch that, I was just reminded of the Ben Chiarot trade, otherwise known as the gift that keeps on giving. As I’m sure most readers are aware of at this point, the Canadiens also own the Florida Panthers’ first-round pick this year, and it’s unprotected. This means the Canadiens could potentially stack their lottery odds in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, but they will need some help in that department.
Under the current NHL Draft Lottery rules, only the top eleven picks are eligible to win the first overall pick. The Washington Capitals are the team holding down that eleventh and final spot as of today, with the Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators also in between the Panthers and Caps. The good news? Only three points separate Florida and Washington, and it’s only two points for Buffalo and Ottawa.
The Canadiens would love it if all three teams could pass the Panthers, increasing Montreal’s lottery odds in the process. If the Panthers don’t fall in the standings and don’t make the playoffs either, the Habs could still “win” the lottery with this pick, but they could only move up to fourth or fifth instead of first or second. There’s a 2.1% chance of picking fourth and a 1% chance of picking fifth.
It's technically possible more teams (or other teams) pass the Panthers, but that's probably too much to ask.
— Ryan Praught (@RyanPraught) March 29, 2023
Lucky for Habs fans, the Panthers still have to play the Sens, Caps, and Sabres one more time. They also play the Canadiens once and the Leafs twice. Can Canadiens fans stomach cheering for division rivals for the sake of lottery odds? Personally, If it means they get a better shot at picking Connor Bedard, I think it’s well worth it.
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