Trade Grades: Analyzing the Dadonov for Gurianov Swap

The Montreal Canadiens have made their first move ahead of the NHL’s March 3rd trade deadline, shipping out Evgenii Dadonov in exchange for forward Denis Gurianov. The Canadiens will also be retaining 50% ($2,5 million) of Dadonov’s $5 million contract that will pay him until the end of this season. Dadonov had four goals and 18 points in 50 games with the Canadiens this season.

Denis Gurianov will be an RFA (Restricted Free Agent) with a $2.9 qualifying offer at season’s end. This means if the Canadiens want to retain his rights, the Habs must offer him a one-year contract worth $2.9 million. Otherwise, he becomes a UFA (more on this later.)  In 43 games with Dallas, the 25-year-old put up just two goals and nine points. He’ll be looking for a fresh start and more opportunities in Montreal.

What does this mean for the Canadiens?

Dadonov was someone we identified as a player that could have been traded by the Canadiens in our trade deadline preview. There we said that the return was unlikely to shock anyone, nor would it necessarily move the needle for the Canadiens. While Gurianov could be a solid addition to the Habs, the sentiment remains true. Gurianov has been an underwhelming player this season, only finding the back of the net twice so far, with his last goal coming on December 10th, 23 games ago.

For those unfamiliar with Gurianov’s game, he’s a speedy player, especially for his size, who can score 20 goals in the NHL, having done so in the 2019-20 season. Gurianov added nine more goals in 27 playoff games that year on route to the Stanley Cup Finals. That Gurianov isn’t the one Montreal traded for though, or at least not initially. Gurianov is 25 years old, so the change of scenery and the potential chance for more ice time could go a long way. Still, I wouldn’t expect that, but you never know.

As mentioned earlier, Gurianov has a qualifying offer of $2.9 million, so a poor performance from the Russian forward could lead to the Canadiens deciding to rescind his rights, granting him UFA status. Even then, they could circle back and re-sign him as they did with Rem Pitlcik last year, not giving him a qualifying offer before extending him for two years. With all the injuries the Habs have had, Gurianov will have a chance to prove himself again with less pressure to perform on a team heading to the playoffs.

In moving out Dadonov, the Habs actually added $400,00 in salary but turned a player who would not be on the team next year into a potential asset for multiple years. It’s a low-risk move with the potential to work out wonderfully for the Habs. Furthermore, the Habs have now managed to turn Shea Weber (unofficially retired) into a 25-year-old forward who showed a lot of promise as recently as two seasons ago. Regardless of how Gurianov pans out, that’s good asset management from Kent Hughes, especially when this looked to be less than ideal situation for him after Dadonov struggled in Montreal.

My hope is that Gurianov can start working with Adam Nicholas, the Canadiens’ skills coach, immediately and maybe refine his game a little bit. Gurianov has hovered right around the 30-point mark in each of the three previous seasons but has fallen off a cliff this season. In the shortened 2021 season, Gurianov had 30 points in 55 games, a 44-point pace over 82 games. If the Canadiens can find a way to get that version of Gurianov, this trade is a homerun.

That’s a big if, but at just 25 years old, it shouldn’t be out of the question. Maybe a little bit of luck will go a long way. Either way, this is a good trade for the Canadiens, mainly for asset management. It can be a fantastic trade if Gurianov can find his game again. Heck, even seeing his point production resemble last season’s 31 points in 73 games would be a pleasant sight. Gurianov will get his opportunity, likely playing on the powerplay and maybe even in the top six. He needs to take advantage of it.

Final Grade: B+ for solid asset management with the potential to be an A+ Gurianov can regain his form.

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