The Montreal Canadiens are now officially a quarter of the way through the 2022-23 NHL season, and seeing how that also coincides with the end of November, it seems like as good a time as any to evaluate their performance thus far.
The Habs have been up and down all season trying to find a rhythm. After a 5-4 start in the month of October, they followed that up with a 6-6-1 November, highlighted by a three game win streak, their longest of the young season. But while the record has remained around .500, statistically, the Canadiens took a step back in November. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers.
Let’s first start by acknowledging that this is a very young Canadiens team, who for most of the year has had to play four rookies on their blueline. Their three best players this season have yet to turn 24. The best is still to come for this group, so them struggling is hardly surprising, nor is it necessarily a negative thing. In fact, it’s what was expected of them, and they have exceeded most expectations thus far.
This is where the Habs stand, statistically though two months of the season.
— Ryan Praught (@RyanPraught) December 1, 2022
Just to be clear, those stats are exclusive to each month, so it’s not a running total. pic.twitter.com/8bypHPKtsP
Okay, now that that’s out of the way, we can take a look at how the Habs fared statistically in the month of November, and compare that to how they looked in October. Let’s first start with the cold hard stats that everyone knows and loves, and then we can look at some analytics as well.
Last month, the Habs scored just under three goals a game, sitting at 2.9, which is about on par with their three goals a game in October. The big difference came at the defensive end of the ice, where the Canadiens gave up 3.8 goals against per game. During the month of October, it was only 3 goals against per game. It’s hard enough to win in the NHL as it is, it’s near impossible to do so giving up nearly 4 goals a game.
As for the special teams, the penalty kill continues to be a strength for Montreal, sitting at 81.3% on the year, good enough for 10th in the league. In November, it was 81.3%, and it was 81.5% in October. It’s been consistently good all season long. Meanwhile, the powerplay saw an improvement, jumping from 11.1% in October to 17.5% in November. For the season, it is just 14.9% which is 31st in the NHL.
But those stats alone don’t tell the whole story, this team is far more complex than that. And that’s where more advanced stats can help fill in the gaps we’re missing. For instance, the Canadiens giving up nearly 4 goals a game would lead you to believe that they are not getting great goaltending, when in reality, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
For instance, Samuel Montembeault is having the best season of his career, and is currently tied for fifth in the NHL in SV% at .924. His career high coming into this season was .894. He’s 11th in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with 6.3. And yet, because the Canadiens have been a mess in their own zone, they’ve given up a ton of scoring chances, and a ton of goals. And that only got worse in November.
Last month, the Canadiens gave up 3.25 GA/60 minutes, which is a lot and ranked 24th in the NHL. And yet, they were expected to give up way more goals. They were tied with Anaheim for dead last in the NHL with 3.73 xGA/60 meaning despite giving up well over 3 goals a game last month, it should have been even worse.
For those that don’t understand or need a refresh, Expected Goals (xG) is a stat that is used to determine how likely a shot is to go in, weighing several factors like distance, angle and so on. Each shot attempt is given a percentage point. So for example, a shot on a breakaway might be deemed to have a 20% chance of going in, so it would count for .2 expected goals. While a weak shot from the point might only have a 1% chance of going in, meaning it only accounts for .01 xG.
Think of it like a complex way of counting scoring chances. It’s a really good tool and can often provide much needed context. For example, you could end a game with an accumulative total of about 5 xG, and yet not score at all. That could tell you that, hey, you should’ve scored a lot more than you did, and you shouldn’t change the way you played based off of one game., because the chances we’re there, you just didn’t finish.
So In Montreal’s case, they are giving up a lot of scoring chances, and have been bailed out by their goaltending. It would explain why Montreal has only one game all season in which they gave up one goal or less. In October, the Habs were 30th, giving up 3.65 xGA/60, but 15th in GA/60. They took a step back in November.
Offensively, the Habs are actually scoring more than they have been expected too, in large part thanks to the Dach-Suzuki-Caufield line who have absolutely lit up the competition. The Habs scored 2.77 GF/60 in November on only 2.56 xGF/60, which ranks 26th and 29th respectively. In October, it was 2.98 GF/60 on 2.67 xGF/60, 23rd and 25th respectively. THe Habs could certainly use a little more offense, especially from the other three lines, as the brunt of the load is being carried by the top line.
So what exactly does this all mean? Well, none of it should be that surprising, nor should it be alarming. This is a young and largely inexperienced team, and that includes the coaching staff. There are 7 players on this team 23 years old or younger, all of which have played significant roles early on. The team wasn’t expected to be even .500 at this point of the season, and yet here they are. The schedule is supposed to get a lot tougher ahead, with many playoff teams still to play, so don’t be surprised if more losses do come, especially if the trends from month to month continue. But remember, this is not supposed to be a playoff team, nor is this by any means the final product. The Habs are right where we expected them to be statically, it’s their record and current place in the standings that is surprising.
There is not reason to panic, or worry. THe Habs are right where they need to be, and I don’t expect that to change next month either. But hey, this is hockey, the game is played on the ice, not paper. Anything can happen.
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