The Montreal Canadiens made a pair of big trades on the NHL Draft floor on Thursday night. It resulted in Alexander Romanov heading to the New York Islanders, a couple of later picks leaving with him, and Kirby Dach heading from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Canadiens.
The 6’4″ and 197 pound centre was the third overall pick in the 2019 NHL Draft by the Blackhawks. He made the NHL team right away as an 18 year old and has played the past three seasons with the Hawks.
That means he has plenty of NHL experience for a 21 year old, but it also means his entry-level contract has expired. He is a restricted free agent and needs a new contract before he plays a game with the Canadiens.
His draft slot, size, potential and position show he could be in line for a big raise. But the most important aspect of his game, his production, has not been all that great. So, what should his next contract look like?
Dach scored just nine goals and 26 points in 70 games last season. Those are career highs. Dach scored eight goals and 23 points in 64 games as a rookie, but required wrist surgery just as his second season was about to begin and it pretty much derailed his production for two years.
So, do the Canadiens gamble on him and try to sign him to a long term contract right now? Or do they go the “bridge” route and let him prove himself for a couple years before committing long term.
There is precedent for giving a third overall pick a huge contract long before he shows and consistent offensive production. The Carolina Hurricanes just signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an eight-year contract with an annual cap hit of $4.82 million. He set a career high with 12 goals last season and his 34 point rookie season is still his best.
However, it is more likely the Canadiens go short term with Dach. An eight year deal at $4.75 just comes with too much risk if he never breaks out offensively.
Other top picks who battled injuries during their entry-level contract were more likely to sign two or three year pacts.
Nolan Patrick was taken second overall in 2017. He had 13 goals and 30 points in each of his first two seasons, but missed his entire third season with injury. He then signed a one-year contract with a cap hit less than a million. After scoring nine points in 52 games, he agreed to a two-year deal with a $1.2 million cap hit.
Michael Rasmussen was a top ten pick in 2017 as well. He scored 18 points in 62 games in his first NHL season and had 12 points in 40 games in his third pro season. He is a big centre for the Detroit Red Wings with lots of potential, but not much production coming out of entry-level. He signed a three year contract with a $1.46 million cap hit.
That’s probably a little less than Dach will get, but it should show that the Canadiens are likely not going to have to commit big dollars to their new centre if they sign him for two years.
If they want to give Dach an eight year contract that he hasn’t earned yet, they could do that and it would cost them about $5 million per year. The far more likely scenario is a short-term, bridge contract of two years at around $1.75 million per season.
Dach has tons of potential, but the reality is, his career highs right now are nine goals and 26 points. He needs to show the Canadiens he can be the dominant two-way centre he was drafted to be before they give him a long term deal.
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