Montreal Canadiens: What Is It? Rework? Retool? Revamp?
“We are not better today. Our prospect pool isn’t substantially better and prospects are a crapshoot” – Someone in the Canadiens organization, probably.
I’ve been hearing that a little bit from some corners of the internet, especially from certain media types. Today, right now, the Canadiens aren’t better. At least, not on the ice. I get that. But that’s not what trade deadline day is for for weaker teams. They are far stronger organizationally, that’s the mission.
Were there alternatives?
I suppose the team could have stayed as is, despite being in last place. Last nights game against the Panthers was just another example of where this Habs team is. They are scrappy, and they are surprisingly tough and resilient. They don’t give up, and they played the Panthers like it was a playoff game.
But it wasn’t enough, despite having about 15 breakaways and Jake Allen looking like a demigod.
97. 3. 152. Final. 4
The Canadiens just aren’t built to win now. Missing Weber, Price, and Danault is just too much to overcome. Being right up against the salary cap, standing pat is not an option.
There has been some interesting information out there since the deadline.
Steve Dangle says a Weber to Arizona trade was nixed. (Link there, it’s worth listening to the whole episode). He also said that Ben Chiarot’s return took other GMs by surprise.
Even our own Co-Site Expert, Patrick Lortie, blew the doors open on an apparent larger trade that could’ve happened with the Oilers.
Some GMs overpay. Some don’t. Mark Giordano’s return (two second rounders) was not an overpay. The trades for Brandon Hagel and Ben Chiarot and Artturi Lehkonen were.
I’m skeptical that many top prospects were available. We know the team was targeting them, and they couldn’t get there, so they had to settle for the next best thing which are draft picks and B level prospects. Draft picks are better than prospects in a way. They hold universal value and maintain their value until they are cashed.
Prospects hold more value in the respect that in a flat cap world every team needs to get younger and cheaper. Right now, that’s every single team in the league not in Ottawa and Arizona.
I’m pretty sure the Habs would have jumped hard for another deal like the Golden Knights huge overpay for Pacioretty. I don’t think it was out there to be had. It’s also become a cautionary tale for most GMs. Only the best teams can afford to overpay.
Of the top tier prospects available, the Habs got one. It’s more than I expected in a buyers market.
Justin Barron isn’t that far off. Here are some scouting videos from Grant McCagg over at Recrutes.ca. The kid looks good, and he is going to play in the NHL. Many folks think he is a second pairing player, and his arrival along with Jordan Harris, who can also play the right side, might accelerate timelines.
No-one can win a war on all fronts. The Habs tried that with Bergevin for a decade and aside from the miracle of last post season it was a relatively miserable final five years.
To illustrate the point let’s examine a different scenario:
Imagine a world where we kept Chiarot and Lehkonen and traded Armia, Petry, and Weber, but retained 50% salary on Armia and Petry like they did with Lehks and Big Ben. In return we got two grade A prospects ready to play next season.
The off season comes, and the Habs resign Chiarot for 5 x 5, and Lehkonen at 4 x 4, making those two players untradeable, and they pay league minimum for their new prospects that play on the team the next year.
The team ends up in a situation where they are paying 4.5 million per year for the right to have those two prospects, a price that is far too high. They are icing two veterans on contracts they can’t move. They have two young players that they can’t necessarily pay in three years time, the veterans have gotten significantly older, and they have made their cap crunch worse for the next 4 seasons.
The Habs situation is far, far better.
But what will those assets actually get us? These picks don’t pan out often, and the prospects don’t look like they are that strong.
Aha.
It’s a matter of philosophy.
A team can’t accomplish a reboot without bringing in assets and players that are in line with their way of thinking. A fast paced, physical, quick processing team isn’t going to be very good if they use the same players in the same positions and just say they want a change of style. It takes new blood. No sense in trading for players that don’t fit the philosophy.
What if the new blood isn’t to be found in the player pools of the teams that were in on Habs players? What if the style of play they are looking for is similar to the Colorado Avalanche, and that’s why they traded for that specific prospect? What if they don’t want to play like the Panthers?
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If what the team wants to do can’t be accomplished that way, that means they have another part to this plan.
I’ve never seen a chess game that was won by someone who could only think two moves ahead.
Having all these draft picks does create a scenario where the timeline back to relevance might take longer. It may not. It’s really a question of how Gorton and Hughes use those picks. This team needs to get much younger and quickly.
One thing is for sure. No matter what you call it, this team is being rebuilt. We see it in the way they play, and now we see it in the way they manage assets.
Must Read. Canadiens Can Take Advantage Of Dadonov Fiasco. light