Canadiens Road Trip To Determine Fate Of Many, Including Team Itself

No fans you are not dreaming, the Montreal Canadiens have won five games in a row.

The team is firing on all cylinders as of late and as we’ve seen against the Ottawa Senators, even the support cast can pick things up and win one for their teammates.

Artturi Lehkonen took the offense in his own hands by scoring two goals and Andrew Hammond was solid in his first game back in Ottawa since 2017 when he was on a tryout with the Senators at training camp.

The team was overall solid. Laurent Dauphin deserves a nod as well for a few well executed defensive plays, including one that saved Andrew Hammond altogether.

Now however, the real test begins. Five wins in a row is nothing to scoff at but this was game one of a five game road trip which will now bring the team to Western Canada. Martin St. Louis’ squad will be facing the struggling Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday (8PM ET) who have now lost 4 in a row at the time of this writing. Then the Habs move on to rekindle with Tyler Toffoli and his red hot Calgary Flames on Thursday (9PM ET) followed by a Saturday night matchup with Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers (7PM ET). The team then gets three days off before having to face the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday the 9th (10:30PM ET). We can all wonder if Shea Weber will be paying his teammates a visit while they’re in the area. Weber was recently in Nashville paying tribute to his former teammate Pekka Rinne who had his jersey retired.

With three weeks before the March 21st trade deadline, the upcoming road trip will likely determine which direction will the Canadiens take in their upcoming rebuild. Winning 2 or more will certainly change the evaluation point of view towards certain players. Whereas if the Habs get run over and lose 3 or 4, then the plans will likely be the same.

Piling on the losses only accentuates the need to keep trading away pending UFA veterans such as Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, Chris Wideman, Mathieu Perreault, Cedric Paquette, Laurent Dauphin and even Andrew Hammond.

Another string of wins however, suddenly the plans can shift to a different direction. Chiarot will still be traded and you still have to listen to offers regarding anyone, however, there becomes less of an urgency to trade Jeff Petry or Artturi Lehkonen.

Granted, it was only a month ago that we cheered to lose in order to get the number one overall draft pick in the upcoming draft and ultimately land on Shane Wright. However, with the increase of talent such as Joakim Kemmel, Logan Cooley and Brad Lambert just to name a few, the Habs can actually afford to drop a few ranks in the draft but also take advantage of a strong finish to the season.

Getting out of the basement, losing draft ranks and finishing the season strong is not a bad thing at all. Having a strong finish ultimately increases the trade value of many players, including Jeff Petry. If losing out on Shane Wright means your consolation prize is Brad Lambert, David Jiricek and Cutter Gauthier for example, then sign me up. Because that’s what the Canadiens can potentially get if the team keeps working hard and increases their trade value.

If Jeff Petry keeps it up, there won’t be a rush to trade him right away as taking a year off his contract actually increases his value, if his play remains solid and consistent. It suddenly becomes even easier to trade him in the week before the draft, or worst case scenario, you trade him during the summer for picks next year.

Same can be said for an anchor like Joel Armia. If he picks things up then suddenly three years at a $3.4 million cap hit seems less intimidating, especially since he will turn only 29 in May. Even if it means flipping him for a bad one year contract along with a mid-to-low draft pick, that’s cap off your back for someone who virtually has no value at the moment.

Mike Hoffman and Jake Allen also fits in a similar category. The former can still pick things up and suddenly there’s a 32 year old sniper available at only two years and $4.5 million cap hit. Sounds similar to Tyler Toffoli who was brought in for secondary scoring, a similar reason Hoffman was signed to begin with. As for Jake Allen, if he comes back healthy and gets his groove back, then there’s a 1B goaltender with a year left on his contract at a ridiculously low $2.875 million cap hit.

So say you flushed those veterans and recuperated a good chunk of the give or take $20 million in salary. That gives you a lot more flexibility as to what to do with players such as Jonathan Drouin or Christian Dvorak. Because if the cost of trading them means taking a bad contract in return, you have the space. Drouin becomes easier to trade that he’s heading towards the final year of his contract and will undoubtedly spark rumors for the entire season. Also don’t forget, Tyler Pitlick, who has yet to play a game for the Canadiens, will also be a free agent after this season and free up another $1.75 million in cap space.

Want some more good news? There’s only two more years left after this season in Karl Alzner’s buyout penalty. The cap hit penalty for this season is $1,958,333. As of next season, the penalty decreases to $833,333 until it finally ends after the 2023-24 season.

All of these scenarios also gives us flexibility as to what to do with Lehkonen’s RFA status and also allows wiggle room to give a raise to other RFA’s such as Alexander Romanov, Rem Pitlick and Samuel Montembeault. The other notable RFA’s, Michael Pezzetta, Kale Clague, Corey Schueneman and Cayden Primeau shouldn’t cost all that much of an increase.

Bottom line is, in a way, if the Canadiens win, we actually win twofold. Better return on our veterans, potentially more first round picks, retaining Martin St. Louis as coach and therefore potentially attracting better free agents.

If we lose, then our consolation prize is a higher draft pick but potentially less of a return on certain veterans. Unless of course we lose by fighting to the last second.

Shane Wright will never be a guarantee as long as the Arizona Coyotes are in our way. Call me paranoid or skeptical, but the NHL is going to do everything in their power to make sure the Coyotes get that first overall pick.

Bottom line? The team needs to fight until the bitter end of this roller coaster of a season.