Montreal Canadiens: In Defense of Optimism

Winning sure helps make folks more optimistic about the future for the Montreal Canadiens, doesn’t it? As we prepare for a trade deadline unlike any other in decades we can be thankful Martin St. Louis is the right person at the right moment to take this team forward.

The first winning streak of the season has given us all a chance to step back and take stock with greater optimism. This version of the team might be the worst in Canadiens history, but at least the games are closer and they are winning again.

Over the last few weeks I pondered writing an article about how this team stacked against the other worst teams of all time. It appears that article will be shelved until at least June. Instead, let’s focus on optimism.

Well, cautious optimism.

Are we in a rebuild or not? The answer seems to be : kind of. Sure, the team is not in last place anymore, they are in second last place. That’s right, it’s a four game winning streak that has rocketed the team in 31st place, so let’s not get too big for our britches.

Reports surfaced today that the team wants to make a splash in the free agent market this summer. It only happens if they trade significant pieces off their roster to make the necessary space. It’s either that or Carey Price is heading to LTIR and retirement.

Sure hope it’s not that.

This is a great time to sign UFAs. With the flat cap it will be a buyer’s market. If Tyler Toffoli could be had for 4 million a season, a steal of a deal for a 30 goal scorer, there will be good deals out there with term and manageable salaries.

But, so far only one player has been traded. There is plenty of work to do, but at least most of these players have a serious cup run under their belts. It will make them more attractive.

The new management is also fortunate in one particular respect: the next set of young upgrades appear to be coming in over the next two to three years. That’s great news, especially for the brass. Hughes and Gorton have five year contracts, they will want something to show for their efforts in year three and four to justify sticking around.

But how many players do they need to get rid of to make the adequate room for younger players and restocking the farm team?

In my opinion, 2 defensemen and at least 2 wingers beyond Toffoli. Trading veterans is simply necessary to accumulate enough draft capital and prospects to build adequate organizational depth. This team still won’t place higher than 27th this season.

It has to happen. The AHL cupboard isn’t just bare, I’m not sure it counts as a cupboard.

Take a look at their roster. It’s Vejdemo, Ylonen, and Harvey-Pinard. I’m not sure I’d confidently believe anyone else has a realistic shot of making the Habs—and I’m not even sure about them. The current Rocket roster is far from the class of the league, despite posting a competitive record.

Its true that Laurent Dauphin seems to be an exception to this, but new blood, better players, and a well stocked pipeline are needed quickly.

In particular, this would be the perfect time to draft as many young centermen and goal scoring wingers as they can stand and hope three of them pan out. The reason for this is timing of a major change in the complexion of the team on defense.

We should anticipate the Clydesdales being traded over the next 12 months. Ben Chiarot will be traded any day now, Jeff Petry has rediscovered his game just in time to join his family in the States, and Joel Edmundson is still lost in space somewhere without a timetable.

Even if Petry and Edmundson stay through next season (which is likely a mistake) they are not elite top pairing. On teams competing for the Cup they are a middle pair. The Habs might keep them one more season to maximize their value at the next trade deadline, but realistically March of 2023 will be the last exit point. The timing for the next competitive cycle makes it necessary.

That’s ok, though, because there are reasons for optimism. 6 reasons, in fact.

As critical as many of us have been in the past concerning drafting and development on the Habs, the depth of defensive prospects in the organization is substantial. It’s a major strength of the organization, and I like the chances many of these young players have. It’s such a major strength that a wager the Habs blue line for the next decade is already set is a good one.

It turns out that Romanov is already there. Those who compared him to Emelin didn’t give his game enough credit. He is more mobile, better with the puck, and plays a smarter game than Emelin ever did. The jury is out on who he is exactly, but he reminds me of Vladimir Konstantinov. Yes, that’s reaching back a ways, but he has the same boldness with the puck, the same physical dominance, the same nasty streak. Add 10 lbs, he is going to be a monster.

And he is hardly alone. The defense on the left side is full of monsters who are going to prowl the blue line and make life absolutely awful for adversaries for the next decade. Guhle is a lock. Harris is a lock, if he signs. That leaves Schuenemann, Norlinder, Struble, and Xhekaj to find their way into the lineup.

It’s the name at the bottom of that list that might be the most intriguing. Xhekaj is a 21 year old playing in Junior—but it’s hard not to believe in him as a prospect. He is a loose-cannon-ticking time-bomb-no-holds-barred-take-no-prisoners-bordering-on-madman type of player and game changer. The kind of player that leaves no bone unbruised. If the team values dynamic players who will dominate physical aspects of the game, Xhekaj will be a front runner to make the roster.

In three to four years time the Habs will have graduated a very promising set of defensemen of exceptional grit and talent, thanks largely to having committed to developing players instead of the tough love approach of the past regime. If that’s s a reason for optimism. If there are enough draft picks available for a renewed forward corps, it appears the Canadiens can rebuild the forward ranks in an accelerated fashion.