The Montreal Canadiens is going much more poorly than anyone anticipated ahead of game one of the season.
The Canadiens were a middling team each of the past two seasons but odd playoff setups allowed them to get in and they overachieved on both occasions. Last year, they crept into the postseason on the strength of a terribly weak division, and then proceeded to march to the Stanley Cup Final.
We thought they were somewhere between the worst teams in the league and the ones likely to make another run at the Stanley Cup Final in 2022, but they’ve proven to be the worst team in the Eastern Conference this season.
Now, sitting last in the Eastern Conference is not where teams want to be, especially when they were in the Stanley Cup Final a year ago and had their eyes set on another playoff season. However, the old saying around the NHL goes that you don’t want to be stuck in the middle. Obviously you want to make the playoffs and the Canadiens, as well as anyone, know anything can happen once you get in.
But if you can’t get in, you may as well miss by a mile. If you do, you get the best draft pick possible out of a non-playoff season.
Well, the Canadiens are sure to miss by a wide margin after their 7-23-4 start. You don’t want to miss the playoffs by a point and draft 16th overall. If you don’t make the playoffs, you want to have as good a chance as possible at picking a generational talent at first overall.
If you look at the Eastern Conference standings, there is a huge gulf between the top eight teams and the bottom eight teams. It sounds ridiculous to say less than halfway through the season but it seems like we already know who is going to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.
Due to postponements, teams have played a wide number of games so far this season. The best way to compare teams at the moment is by points percentage. In the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins .625 points percentage puts them in fourth place. In fifth is the Detroit Red Wings at .500.
The same disparity is happening in the Metropolitan Division. The Washington Capitals are fourth in the division with a .662 points percentage and the Columbus Blue Jackets are fifth at .485. That means the Caps are on pace to finish fourth in the division with 109 points while the Blue Jackets would next with 80.
It’s a huge divide that could be difficult to close even with 45 or so games to play.
So that means there are eight teams outside the playoffs in the Eastern Conference right now that have almost zero chance of making the playoffs. If you know for 45 games that you aren’t making the playoffs, you better get a top pick out of it.
Well, the Canadiens will. But can you imagine being a fan of the Philadelphia Flyers right now? They gave up their first round pick at last year’s draft to upgrade and try to go on a run this season but they are on the outside looking in with 47 games left to play. They have a couple of trade pieces in Claude Giroux and Rasmus Ristolainen, but they gave up last year’s first for Ristolainen as well as a second round pick and young defender Robert Hagg. They won’t get that much back for him now and they will end up with a pick somewhere around 10-15.
The New York Islanders and New Jersey Devils also thought they could contend for a playoff spot this season but they already know that isn’t happening and they are very unlikely to get a top five pick either. Knowing in early January you aren’t playoff bound is bad news, but it usually comes with a good chance at the first overall pick. That isn’t the case for the Isles or Devils.
The same could be said for half the Eastern Conference when compared to the Canadiens. If a team is going to miss the playoffs they want to have a really good chance at the first overall pick.
The Canadiens are going to miss the playoffs, but at least we know they currently have the best chance of any Eastern Conference team of getting that first overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft. If given the opportunity, half the Eastern Conference would switch spots with the Canadiens in the standings right now.