Montreal Canadiens: What Could the Canadiens Acquire at the Trade Deadline?
The Habs are in free-fall, it seems inevitable that the team will be big sellers at the deadline; let’s speculate what the Habs could add when they sell.There is no point in writing a long introduction detailing why the Habs will be sellers at the deadline, their 4-12-2 record speaks for itself and only the Arizona Coyotes and the Ottawa Senators have fewer points than the Canadiens, and both of those teams have games in hand. While Joel Edmundson is returning from injury, and Mike Hoffman should return soon enough, they won’t fix the glaring issues the team has.
As a result, Marc Bergevin (or whichever GM will be at the helm of the team at the trade deadline) would be wise to make the most of the value players on expiring contracts have and acquire foundational pieces for the future. The players whose deals expire after this season include Ben Chiarot, Brett Kulak, Artturi Lehkonen, Chris Wideman, Sami Niku, Cedric Paquette, and Matthieu Perreault. There are a few other names that could be moved for quite the haul, however. Let us begin with the pending free agents, though.
Artturi Lehkonen
Artturi Lehkonen has never turned out to be the sniper many hoped he would become following his strong SHL career and an 18-goal rookie campaign. He has, however, been a highly consistent and reliable bottom-6 winger who gives his all every shift and can complement top-6 linemates, as he did with Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher on the magical run to the finals.
This season, Lehkonen has been one of the few Habs to play in the top-9 or top-4 and retain a positive xGF%, among Habs to have played at least 10 games, Lehkonen leads the team in this metric by a wide margin, with 62.58%. Jake Evans comes in second, with 57.01%. Tyler Toffoli is the only top-6 forward above 50%, and he sits at 54.2%. Lehkonen is also on a strong run in terms of offensive output, after being limited to a single assist in the opening 13 games, he has racked up 8 points in as many games since then (including 2 goals), which certainly has to do with his promotion to the third line alongside Evans and Gallagher.
Contending teams love to add young, quick, reliable wingers for both a playoff push and depth for the future, so Lehkonen certainly holds value. How much value is likely dependent on how his production continues between now and deadline day. If it resembles his overall career production, then a 2nd round pick from a contender or a B-level prospect (think along the quality of Luke Tuch) could be achievable. If Lehkonen ramps up his production, as he has in the last 8 games, then the Habs could hope to get an extra third or fourth-round pick in the trade.
Ben Chiarot is the big-ticket item the Habs are likely to trade this season. The 30-year-old left defenseman is, in my opinion, going to garner a return that will have many hockey fans shocked. I don’t say this because I think he is a phenomenal defenseman – in my view, he should be on Montreal’s third pairing – but I do think that many of the more old-school GMs in the league will be prepared to give up a whole lot for the defenseman who played the most minutes on a team that went to the cup finals, while also playing a physical and punishing style.
He has also had a very good start to the season (think 2019-20 Chiarot rather than 2020-21 Chiarot), having scored 4 goals, which is tied for the team lead and controlling 50.4% of the expected goals (on a terrible team) whilst playing the most even-strength minutes on the team. Last season, David Savard cost the Lightning picks in the first, third and fourth rounds. What Savard had not done in his career at the time of the trade was lead a team in average time on ice on a run to the finals, so Chiarot could potentially get the Habs an even greater return than this haul.
The Edmonton Oilers could be the perfect team to trade for Chiarot; Ken Holland has shown his desire for veteran leadership on the back end with his trade for Duncan Keith and Chiarot would fit that mould and add significant physicality to protect McDavid. At recent trade deadlines, both JG Pageau and Tomas Tatar got a return of a first, a second and a third-round pick, there’s a chance that happens with Chiarot this year, with very few left-defensemen available and next to none with his resume and physicality. Instead of just draft capital, the Canadiens could try to target Cole Caufield’s old teammate, Dylan Holloway, in a trade, which would immediately replenish the team’s centre depth moving forward.
Matthieu Perreault
Perreault is a really solid fourth-liner who can fill a role as a net-front guy on the powerplay quite competently. That has value, along with his cheap contract, ability to play centre and wealth of experience. If Perreault fully returns to health and plays a solid season, getting a fourth-round pick should be a guarantee, and a third-round pick could be possible.
Cedric Paquette
Paquette is a fascinating player to me, he plays a physical game that Dominique Ducharme clearly appreciates, and has a 56.07 xGF%, which ranks third on the team for players with at least 10 games under their belt; and yet, fans are unilaterally campaigning for him to stay out of the lineup, whether they follow analytics or reserve themselves to the eye test. Despite this, there’s always a market for a physical fourth-line centre and the Habs could probably get a sixth-round pick if they wanted to.
Brett Kulak
He probably shouldn’t be in this tier, as he has demonstrated over the past four seasons that he can be a very effective #4 defenseman, driving good metrics and proving valuable in transition and in diffusing pressure from the back-end. But he has never gained the confidence of his coaches, despite forming an elite pairing with Jeff Petry for the better part of two seasons, and his trade value is likely relatively low, in the same region as Matthieu Perreault’s.
Sami Niku and Chris Wideman
I’m just going to put these two in the same category. Both have been more able to quarterback a powerplay than Jeff Petry this season and are driving terrific metrics in fairly sheltered roles at even strength. They’re both puck-movers who have looked really good to me and are being under-utilized by their coach. In 6 games, Niku leads the team in xGF% with 64.18%, while Wideman has a 55.22 xGF% in 16 games. Wideman is also tied for seventh on the team in points with Christian Dvorak (yikes) with 8 points, including 2 goals, which puts him at half a point per game. Similar to Kulak, I don’t think the Habs would get a worthwhile return for either of these players, but Wideman could probably fetch a fourth-round pick (maybe a third) while Niku could get a fifth.
Tyler Toffoli
If the Habs want to rebuild, trading Toffoli would be a good place to start. Two years ago, he fetched the LA Kings a highly-rated prospect in Tyler Madden along with a second and a fourth-round pick. Since then, he has excelled in a short stint in Vancouver, scored 28 goals in 52 games (a 44-goal pace) and contributed to an unlikely run to the finals. He also remains on a very team-friendly contract of $4.25 million, and players with term are always worth more. This season, he has 4 goals and 12 points in 21 games, which sounds bad, but he’s tied for the team lead in goals and is second in points; and he’s also driving impressive metrics.
Toffoli is also still 29 years old, so he would fetch a pretty huge return for the Habs. A first-round pick, or the equivalent, would be a necessity. Depending on the value of the first-round pick, or the prospect, the Habs could either demand another one or two second-round picks. Toffoli certainly doesn’t need to be traded, so the Habs are in even more of a position of strength in trade negotiations involving him than they are with someone like Chiarot.
Jake Allen
Allen also has term remaining on his affordable contract, with another year at $2.875 left after this one, and the Habs are under no pressure to move him. The veteran goaltender has done valiant work in the absence of Carey Price since his arrival in Montreal, and would have been lost to the Seattle Kraken had Price and Bergevin not played their high-stakes game of poker with Ron Francis. If the Habs move him, similar to Toffoli, they would admit that rebuild was beginning, but they could get a solid return. A second-round pick would be guaranteed, and a late-first or a second and a third/fourth would be a possibility, considering his track record and cheap contract.
Conclusion
The Canadiens are a bad team this season, and they should make the most of a poor situation by gaining assets for players they’d likely lose in free agency. Trevor Timmins certainly doesn’t have a sterling record in recent years, but the more lottery tickets he’s given, the higher the chances are of him hitting nonetheless. If the Habs are willing to admit that the roster as it is currently constructed can’t make the playoffs, let alone compete in them, then trading away players like Toffoli and Allen could both accelerate and improve the rebuilding process, while injecting more young talent into the organization.