The Montreal Canadiens were put in a tricky spot in the summer when they chose not to rush to re-sign Jesperi Kotkaniemi.
We all know what happened as the young Finnish centre was a restricted free agent and signed a one-year $6.1 million contract with the Carolina Hurricanes. The Habs took their time, and eventually elected not to match the offer which resulted in the Canadiens getting first and third round picks for Kotkaniemi.
Considering Kotkaniemi has three points in 15 games with the Hurricanes and is barely averaging more than a shot on goal per game, I’d say the Canadiens made the correct call in letting him walk.
But, we have to start asking if their next move was the correct one. The Habs, barely an hour after announcing they would not retain Kotkaniemi, moved a 2022 first round pick and a 2024 second round pick to the Arizona Coyotes for Christian Dvorak. He was pegged as a two-way centre who would provide even more scoring in Montreal because he would have better linemates.
He played well for the Coyotes, scoring 17 goals and 31 points in 56 games last season which would have been a 25 goal pace over a full season.
His first season with the Canadiens, while mostly playing with Jonathan Drouin and Josh Anderson, he has two goals and seven points in 19 games played. That’s a pace of just under ten goals in a full season, when we hoped he would push for 30. He is barely on pace for 30 points.
The Canadiens hadn’t traded a first round pick since the 2008 NHL Draft when they acquired Alex Tanguay. He scored 41 points in 50 games and there were still many fans in Montreal that weren’t happy with the deal. If Dvorak continues at this rate and scores 30 points, giving up a first and a second round pick for him is going to start to look terrible.
Dvorak is signed for three more seasons at a reasonable $4.45 million cap hit. That is reasonable is he gets back to his previous pace and scores over 20 goals and approaches 50 points while playing good defensive minutes as well and continues to be the team’s Faceoff ace.
He’s been good on the faceoffs this season, winning 54.2% of his draws, but that’s about all he has offered thus far. Plus-minus is a dated stat with severe limitations, but Dvorak is a -16 in 19 games which is the worst on the team and second worst in the entire league. Again, it’s not the most accurate stat for drawing conclusions but when a player is this low it does tell us something. That something is that Dvorak is on the ice for way too many goals against.
He also hasn’t been on the ice for nearly enough goals for and he has to take the blame for that. He was expected to bring plenty of offence and scoring but he just has not done it yet. His line with Drouin and Anderson has looked good at time, including the team’s loss to the New York Rangers on Tuesday, but they were as invisible as anyone on Thursday against the Boston Bruins.
Dvorak simply needs to step up and bring a far more consistent offensive game. The Canadiens gave up a lot to get him and put him in an opportunity to succeed with offensive wingers. But they aren’t getting the value they expected out of Dvorak.
Dvorak’s struggles are certainly not the only reason the Canadiens are struggling this season, but they would be in a better spot if he was scoring at a 30 goal pace instead of a 30 point pace.