Montreal Canadiens fans appear ready to relinquish Jesperi Kotkaniemi but there are many reasons to match this offer sheet.
I published an article yesterday detailing my thought process about the Kotkaniemi offersheet and how it would look for both teams if the offer was matched or if it wasn’t. My own conclusion was that, due to the 2022 draft class being a very strong one, the Habs might be wise not to overpay and therefore force astronomical expectations upon Jesperi Kotkaniemi. And I am not alone in this particular line of thinking:
If the 1st round pick of the Canes is in the teens next year, a realistic possibility, the player the Habs could get would likely have the same upside and % chance of hitting it as current KK. It might even take him the same time.
— David St-Louis (@DavidSt_Louis) August 29, 2021
While I do fall more into the camp of not matching than I do the camp of matching the offer, I can’t say it would be an easy decision for me to make if I were in Marc Bergevin’s shoes. The argument for taking the picks was outlined in both my initial piece and Ken MacMillan’s editorial yesterday, so I figured a comprehensive listing of the reasons to match the offer should be written up.
Development System
This is the most abstract and least substantive reason for the Canadiens to match the offersheet as it isn’t all that important to us fans but, rather, figures into the pride of the Habs’ management and scouting staff. If the Habs decide not to match the Kotkaniemi offersheet, they are, to an extent, admitting that the second third overall pick of the Marc Bergevin was another poor selection.
Whether or not that would remain the case for Kotkaniemi in a theoretical future with the Hurricanes is irrelevant. After investing 3 years into a third overall pick, only getting likely mid-to-late selections in the first and third rounds can only be seen as a failure. Had a team with the, say, 20th overall pick approached the Canadiens on draft day in 2018 and offered that selection along with a third for the third overall selection they’d have been laughed at.
If the Habs lose Kotkaniemi, of the seven first-round selections Marc Bergevin made between 2012 and 2018 only Ryan Poehling would remain in the organization. Galchenyuk eventually netted Josh Anderson and Kotkaniemi will have netted extra draft capital, while the best player of the group, Mikhail Sergachev netted the team Jonathan Drouin who, while perhaps primed for a breakout campaign has in no way equalled Sergachev’s impact on the ice. But if seven first-round picks including two third overall selections and a ninth overall pick only net the team a middle-six power forward, a middle-six skilled winger and future mid-first and mid-third round picks can you really deem the drafting/development to be anything other than bad?
Losing Kotkaniemi would require Marc Bergevin and Trevor Timmins to admit to their failures at the draft and in the handling of young first-round talent for at least the first seven years of Bergevin’s tenure (Cole Caufield is breaking the trend). Pride means a lot in hockey and not matching the offersheet would require management to swallow theirs.
Short-Term Centre Situation
The Habs could have had a centre trio of Suzuki-Danault-Kotkaniemi but are now faced with the possibility of a Suzuki-Evans-Poehling trio instead. This core, and Bergevin, still believe they can get back to the cup finals, for better or for worse, and heading into the season with that inexperienced trio leading the charge, or worse, with Cedrick Paquette centring a top-9 line, is a virtual forfeit of that dream.
Kotkaniemi is raw but he’s also the second-best centre this team has in terms of current quality, potential and talent level. Sure, Bergevin could flip the picks he gets for Kotkaniemi for someone like Christian Dvorak (not a move I’d like at all), but do you really want to make the story about a virtual 1-for-1 trade yet again? Keeping Kotkaniemi or packaging the picks for someone like Jack Eichel are the clearest paths to having a skilled second-line centre this season, which the team needs, and we all know how unlikely an Eichel trade would be.
In order to appease veterans like Jeff Petry, Brendan Gallagher and Carey Price, whose windows are closing (yes, Gallagher has a long contract but his years of high-end production are numbered), Marc Bergevin might feel pressured to keep Kotkaniemi, despite the price tag, he can, after all, work around his cap hit this season. It would certainly encourage a long-term extension in the next year, but maybe Kotkaniemi rises to the occasion in a top-6 role.
Guaranteed Skill
Sure, the Canadiens could take the draft picks and the first-rounder could be a lottery pick, which could be a better player than Kotkaniemi, but that player would, in all likelihood be a long way away from having an impact and would carry far more question marks than Kotkaniemi. Kotkaniemi’s floor seems to be that of Lars Eller, who has been among the league’s best third-line centres for quite a while now. The Finn also boasts flashes of skill that Eller never did.
Is it not wise to just take the guaranteed skillful player who still needs to figure some things out rather than draft picks that would also require the Canadiens to draft well, which they’ve been rather inconsistent with? Kotkaniemi has the size and talent to be a high-end player, he’s even responsible defensively. It’s possible that his role and his rotating cast of linemates have been the driving factors of his struggles and that the stability and ice time he’d get with the Habs next season if they match the offer enable him to break out.
Kotkaniemi is still so young that he himself, like the players the Habs could draft with Carolina’s picks, is a bit of a mystery box. If developed properly he could reach a tantalizing ceiling, being a perfect complement to Nick Suzuki and if he does, matching the offersheet will be the retrospective right decision. The guaranteed potential Kotkaniemi holds is what makes this such a difficult decision for Bergevin to make and it should be interesting to see what conclusion he comes to.