Montreal Canadiens: The Argument Against Matching Jesperi Kotkaniemi Offer Sheet

The Montreal Canadiens were surprised to learn Jesperi Kotkaniemi had agreed to an offer sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday.

They must have been far more surprised when they learned the details of that offer sheet. Kotkaniemi agreed to a one year contract with a cap hit of $6.1 million. Coming off a five goal season, Kotkaniemi has earned about a quarter of that amount of money for next season.

Their options now are either match the contract offer and keep the 21 year old that they selected third overall in 2018. Or, allow him to play for the Hurricanes and receive first and third round picks in return.

It seems unfathomable to just let such a young player go especially when all you have to do is say, “yeah, we’ll keep him,” but in this case, it is an option that needs to be considered. In fact, there are several reasons that letting Kotkaniemi walk away is actually the correct decision to make right now for general manager Marc Bergevin.

First of all, Kotkaniemi’s just not worth that kind of money. Agreeing to pay him over $6 million after scoring five goals and 20 points in 56 games sets quite the precedent for future negotiations. If Kotkaniemi gets that much, what do you pay Nick Suzuki who has proven to be a two-way force on the team’s first line? How much will Cole Caufield earn if he continues to fill the net in the NHL like he has everywhere else?

You’re definitely looking at $8 million for Suzuki starting in 2022-23, just to give him noticeably more than Kotkaniemi who he has greatly outperformed.

Agreeing to this contract would also put Kotkaniemi is a difficult position with his own home fanbase. It is one thing to score a goal every 11 games when you are 20 years old, but clearly have the potential to be a second line centre one day in the future. It is quite something else to score every ten or so games when you are being paid more than any other forward on the team except for Brendan Gallagher.

A ten game goalless drought would turn Kotkaniemi into the team’s whipping boy faster than a playoff loss in Toronto turns the fanbase on William Nylander.

The Canadiens also need to consider it really isn’t a one year agreement. If the Habs match this contract, Kotkaniemi can simply refuse to sign a long term extension and put the Canadiens in the same bind a year from now. They would either have to offer him a qualifying offer at $6.1 million for the 2022-23 season, or allow him to become an unrestricted free agent.

They could choose to go to arbitration, but still couldn’t offer him less than about $5.1 million for that season, and arbitration cases have a tendency to turn ugly. At this point in their relationship, could Kotkaniemi and the Canadiens survive that process? I highly doubt it.

This same song and dance would have to go on for three consecutive offseasons. The Canadiens would either give him $6.1 million again or let him become a UFA, until he has seven pro seasons completed and that won’t be until 2025.

The Canadiens also host the NHL Draft in 2022 at the Bell Centre. It will be the first in person draft since 2019, and it would be a nice boost for the home team if they had two selections in the first round. It would be unlikely that either pick would be third overall like Kotkaniemi was, but you never know with the draft lottery.

The Hurricanes lost star defenceman Dougie Hamilton to free agency and replaced him with the league’s largest locker room cancer in Tony DeAngelo. They also had terrific goaltending depth with Petr Mrazek, Alex Nedeljkovic and James Reimer, but all three are gone and the injury prone Frederik Andersen and Antti Rannta will be in goal in Carolina this season.

Is it possible that the Hurricanes goaltending is far worse than last season and the DeAngelo experiment doesn’t work out? Is it also possible that they fall behind the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Islanders and either the New York Rangers or Philadelphia Flyers and miss the postseason?

Not many would predict the Hurricanes to miss the playoffs, but with their odd decisions in the offseason, it is possible. That would give the Canadiens a pick somewhere around 15th overall which is far more enticing than a late round selection.

The Canadiens appeared ready to replace Phillip Danault with Jake Evans in a two-way role next season. That means Kotkaniemi is once again pencilled in to a third line role. Is it impossible to replace his five goals in the lineup? Signing Tyler Bozak would give them just as much offensive punch from the third line next season and far more reliable defence.

Of course, there is plenty of risk that Kotkaniemi will break out down the road and that was still the hope among the Canadiens fan base as recently as Saturday morning. But there are enough reasons to believe this contract he signed will do more harm than good for him going forward in Montreal.

Many fans were already impatient with Kotkaniemi’s slow development. The heat would be turned up considerably now. Could the young centre even handle the pressure of returning to Montreal as their fourth highest paid player? I’m not sure, but $6.1 million is an awful lot to wager on that. What if he struggles and then you have to let him become an unrestricted free agent so you can afford to re-sign Suzuki in a year?

Then you have lost him for nothing. That would be the worst case scenario and needs to be avoided. Which is why the safest thing to do at this point is let the Hurricanes have him and take the first and third round picks for the draft that the Canadiens are hosting next June.