Montreal Canadiens: What Would Centre Deployment Be Without Jesperi Kotkaniemi?

Montreal Canadiens 21 year old centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi has signed an offer sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes.

The one-year, $6.1 million contract is going to be a difficult one for Habs general manager Marc Bergevin to deal with. Does he overpay his young centre greatly, or does he let the big middle man with big potential leave town for first and third round draft picks?

Those picks would be from the 2022 NHL Draft, one that will be held in Montreal at the Bell Centre next June. Decisions, decisions.

We don’t know, and likely won’t know what Bergevin plans to do until much closer to the deadline of Saturday, September 4th. There are many things to consider before Bergevin makes that decision. Is Kotkaniemi worth that much money? Will he ever be worth that much money? Is the compensation enough to wave goodbye to a recent third overall draft pick? Can the Canadiens live without him?

The Habs just made a run to the Stanley Cup Final. Kotkaniemi’s Jekyll and Hyde play was on full display throughout the run. At times he looks like a budding young power forward who can put pucks in the net at a great frequency. At many other times he looks invisible. If he cleans up the invisibility act, he becomes a terrific second line centre. If he continues to be inconsistent, he will never be worth $6 million in a season.

Kotkaniemi was tied for second on the Habs in goals in the postseason with five. He was fifth in points on their lengthy playoff run. But he was also a healthy scratch at the beginning and the end of the playoffs.

He was simply outplayed for stretches by all of Nick Suzuki, Phillip Danault, Eric Staal and Jake Evans. The same could be said for the regular season, where he scored just five goals in 56 contests. A goal every 11th game from a centre doesn’t really scream $6 million per year.

But what will the Canadiens do without Kotkaniemi? When Phillip Danault signed with the Los Angeles Kings and not replaced, it was assumed that Kotkaniemi would finally get a chance to play second line minutes for a long stretch of games.

But, was that really the plan?

When Dominique Ducharme met with the media last week, he mentioned that he believed Jake Evans could replace Phillip Danault’s spot in the lineup. That means Evans would be playing with Brendan Gallagher in a shutdown role. Nick Suzuki will surely be on the top line and probably flanked with Tyler Toffoli and Cole Caufield. If Evans plays with Gallagher and another defensive winger with some offensive upside like Joel Armia, that leaves Kotkaniemi on the third line once again anyway.

Perhaps he would have better wingers with Mike Hoffman and Anderson or Mathieu Perreault, but if Evans is replacing Danault, then Kotkaniemi is still the team’s third line centre. If he is gone, that role likely goes to Ryan Poehling.

Poehling had a strong AHL season with the Laval Rocket, but hasn’t proven himself at the NHL level just yet. Penciling him in to make the opening night roster was risky enough, but if Kotkaniemi is off to Carolina, Poehling suddenly has a much bigger role to play.

Instead of Kotkaniemi on the third line, it would be Poehling likely centering Hoffman and Anderson. That would leave fourth line duties to Cedric Paquette who would have a bit of a rotating door of wingers including Artturi Lehkonen, Paul Byron and Perreault.

With the beginning of free agency in the rearview mirror, there aren’t many options left on the open market for the Habs to sign.

So, among the many questions that Bergevin has to ask himself and his staff this week is, can they trust Ryan Poehling to start the season as the team’s third line centre? If not, they will be far more inclined to match the offer sheet and keep Kotkaniemi for the 2021-22 season.