An Analytics-Based Look Into the Montreal Canadiens’ Lack of Offence

The Montreal Canadiens can’t score. Plain and simple.

No matter which way you look at it, cut it, smell it, taste it, or prepare it, the Montreal Canadiens have not been able to put a puck into a net reliably, or consistently, over the course of their first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is something I had actually written about during last year’s playoffs, after the Habs found themselves down 3-1 in their first-round series against the Philadelphia Flyers. However, right after I wrote that piece, Montreal put up five goals on the Flyers in Game 5 before ultimately losing in six, so, swings and roundabouts, I suppose.

Well, the Montreal Canadiens now find themselves in that same situation once again, only this time, I doubt they’ll be able to put up a similar performance in this Game 5. After an impressive 2-1-win in Game 1, the Canadiens have once again, been plagued by their lack of offence which derailed a fantastic start to this season, leading to a campaign that had overall, (in my opinion) more negatives than positives in spite of clinching a playoff spot.

In the four games played thus far, the Canadiens have potted just four goals, and only two players on the team have managed to get more than a point. In what was expected to be a solid bounce-back performance in Game 4, Montreal instead looked utterly lifeless in a ventilating 4-0 loss, in spite of peppering Leafs’ goalie Jack Campbell with 32 shots.

In fact, this was the first game of the series in which the Canadiens outshot the Leafs, but after watching Tuesday’s night matchup, it didn’t look quite as impressive as you would be led to believe. With the Canadiens now faced with a do or die situation in the aforementioned Game 5, I’m going to turn to something I never thought I would turn to, to try and explain and, in a sense, encapsulate, the offensive struggles the team has been experiencing over the course of this series.

Analytics.

Here’s an analytics-based look into the Montreal Canadiens’ continued lack of offence:

Now, to be honest, I’m not the biggest fan of analytics when applied to hockey, as I find advanced metrics don’t work quite as well in a sport that is based on constant back and forth action with the occasional stoppage in play. Nonetheless, I think it will give the best insight into the lack of offence the Montreal Canadiens have been plagued with, even with Carey Price (at times) returning to his Hart Trophy form of the season prior.

So, with that being said, here’s a look at one of the main metrics often utilized to try and pinpoint a team or player’s struggles. Heatmaps. This is the heatmap for the Canadiens and Leafs shot attempts over the course of these past four games (courtesy of naturalstattrick.com).

Now, at first glance, this might be a bit hard to decipher in terms of what it’s showing, but in the simplest sense, the bright red/dark blue areas are the ones in which the pictured team has had the highest danger scoring chances from. In the case of the Canadiens, this is, unsurprisingly, mainly from in front of the net, as has been the norm with their numerous net-front presences like Corey Perry, Eric Staal, and Brendan Gallagher, along with Shea Weber’s usual slapshot from the point. As expected, most of the Canadiens’ high danger chances have been coming from the left-side, even in spite of Weber’s continued inaccuracy, but more on that later.

While most of the Leafs’ opportunities have also come from in front, one look at their high danger areas paints a much clearer picture regarding how effective Toronto has been from not only the front of the net but the slot, as well as the high post. William Nylander’s opening goal in game four came from a great play from former Hab Alex Galchenyuk in front. The Leafs, for the most part, have benefited from their terrific passing and vision across their lineup, which has enabled them to keep the puck away from Montreal on both ends of the ice. In comparison, Habs Head Coach Dominique Ducharme has continued to run with a dump and chase system based around some of the bigger bodies in the lineup like Josh Anderson and Joel Armia.

While this is something that has worked for the Montreal Canadiens at times (particularly in game one), they were simply outmuscled by the Leafs on Tuesday, and as such weren’t able to generate many chances from along the boards. Even when they found themselves with an opportunity, forwards like Staal were tied up in front and thus unable to get off any solid shots. For the most part, Montreal’s lack of offence has been based around an inability to generate from anywhere but in front, and even when having a chance in front, more often than not find themselves tied up or in a poor position relative to the net.

In relating Montreal’s shots on goal to their iCF totals (Individual Corsi Shots on Goal, which accounts for blocked and missed shots as well as shots on net), there’s a notable trend of inaccuracy from most areas of the ice (according to Natural Stat Trick). Weber – who failed to register a shot on goal in Game 4 – is 4/11 thus far when getting shots to the net. He’s struggling to be in the right position to get his slapshot off reliably. While Petry has managed to get most of his shots to the net thus far, he’s been firing into traffic more often than not, as evidenced by being 9/15 and just 3/15 when accounting for iSCF, which tracks any scoring chances by a player outside of a shootout.

In comparison, Toronto has been much more effective when getting shots on net, and, at a base level, have been getting far more contributions from all over their lineup. For Montreal, their usual first line of Tomas Tatar, Philip Danault and Gallagher has utterly disappeared thus far in this series, in spite of managing 14 shots total. For the most part, the Habs’ contributions have been from their bottom six and or younger guys like Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

Although the Leafs’ all-star top six of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Nylander, and others have been hot and cold, Nylander has been white-hot to start, and depth players like Galchenyuk and Alex Kerfoot have contributed when it mattered most, with both recording three points in Tuesday’s Game 4 win.

The fact of the matter is, regardless of whether you believe in analytics or not (at least when applied to hockey), there are certainly some issues that are brought to light when looking at these advanced metrics outside of the simple fact that Montreal can’t score. They continually have been relying on play in front, have been woefully inaccurate from most areas of the ice, and simply haven’t been capitalizing and generating enough opportunities to remain in contention with the Leafs.

Toronto has played like their usual high-octane selves in this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar outcome in Game 5 as we did in Game 4. While Montreal managed to put up one heck of a fight in their first-round series last year, it seems as though they’ve well and truly met their match with their long-time rivals in Toronto.

While there’s always hope that the Montreal Canadiens can turn things around, it seems as though, as shown by advanced metrics (shocking, I know), the Canadiens’ offensive dry spell will continue to be the roadblock between them, and a long-awaited, first-round series win.