Montreal Canadiens: Does Adam Lowry Extension Impact Phillip Danault’s Next Contract?

Montreal Canadiens centre Phillip Danault is slated to be an unrestricted free agent after this season.

He is not having his best offensive season, but he brings value as a terrific defensive player who shuts down the toughest opponents on any given night. What he lacks in goal scoring punch, he makes up for by taking chances and goals off the board for the other team.

There were plenty of rumours earlier in the year that Danault turned down a huge contract extension offer from the Canadiens. Of course, rumours don’t necessarily mean they are 100% accurate, but it sounds like he was given a six year offer at $5 million per season.

That was at the start of this season, or maybe even before it began. Back when he was coming off two seasons that saw him score at more than a 50 point pace while also being a dark horse Frank Selke candidate as the league’s best defensive forward. Danault set a career high in goals last season with 13 in 71 games, and was on pace to just pass his career high of 53 points as well before the league shut down.

13 goals and 54 points doesn’t make Danault an offensive force, but again, his value is as an elite defensive player who can chip in some offence and play a great two-way game.

Danault has centred the league’s best possession line with Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher on his wings since Tatar was acquired ahead of the 2018-19 season. They don’t score as often as Nathan MacKinnon’s line in Colorado, Auston Matthews line or Patrice Bergeron’s line, but the Danault trio is so good defensively, their goal differential is one of the best in the league.

With a limit to his offence already, five million per year sounded like the absolute most a player like Danault would receive. This season, he has just four goals and 21 points in 42 games. That’s an eight goal and 41 point pace over a full season. You could expect a few more goals from Danault based on his history, but not a lot.

So, what is he worth on his next contract? A downturn in production this season certainly brings his value down some, but how much?

Well, he is scoring at almost the exact same pace as Winnipeg Jets centre Adam Lowry. The hulking middeman for the Habs division rival (this year at least) has eight goals and 20 points in 45 games. Lowry reached career highs in offence back in 2016-17 when he scored 15 goals and 29 points.

Danault has routinely scored more than 29 points, but he also plays with goal scoring wingers Tatar and Gallagher. They may not be Rocket Richard contenders, but Lowry has mostly played on a third line with Andrew Copp, Brandon Tanev, Mason Appleton or Mathieu Perreault.

While Lowry has never scored close to the 53 points Danault had in 2018-19, he also was never given first line minutes, and he did once score 15 goals which is something Danault hasn’t done.

Lowry just signed a five year extension with the Jets with a cap hit of $3.25 million.

Danault’s higher point totals will ensure he gets more money on his next contract, but with better opportunity, how much more is he worth? Is he really any better offensively than Lowry, or does he just play with more offensive wingers and get more ice time at five on five?

Lowry is a solid defensive centre himself but not quite at the same level as Danault.

Danault should still expect a long term contract, and will probably get five years just like Lowry. He probably gets more money too, but if Lowry is only worth $3.25 million right now, Danault isn’t worth any more than $4.25.

Time will tell, but that Lowry contract should help the Canadiens keep Danault’s average salary quite a bit lower than was rumoured to be offered early in the season.