A Winning Habit
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Montreal Canadiens: 7 Talking Points From Past 7 Days

By Sebastian High

MONTREAL, QC - MARCH 04: Jeff Petry #26 of the Montreal Canadiens and teammate Joel Armia #40 collide during the overtime period against the Winnipeg Jets at the Bell Centre on March 4, 2021 in Montreal, Canada. The Winnipeg Jets defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-3 in overtime. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - MARCH 04: Jeff Petry #26 of the Montreal Canadiens and teammate Joel Armia #40 collide during the overtime period against the Winnipeg Jets at the Bell Centre on March 4, 2021 in Montreal, Canada. The Winnipeg Jets defeated the Montreal Canadiens 4-3 in overtime. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /
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MONTREAL, QC – FEBRUARY 04: Jesperi Kotkaniemi #15 of the Montreal Canadiens (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC – FEBRUARY 04: Jesperi Kotkaniemi #15 of the Montreal Canadiens (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /

4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Phillip Danault

To put it simply, Jesperi Kotkaniemi has played himself into a top-6 role and Phillip Danault has played himself out of one; and yet, Danault remains on the second line and Kotkaniemi on the third. Danault has averaged 16:42 of ice-time a game, while Kotkaniemi has averaged 13:56. Danault is given offensive wingers in Gallagher and Tatar, while Kotkaniemi has had his offensive winger (Toffoli) taken away from him.

Despite having checking linemates for much of the season, Kotkaniemi has significantly outperformed Danault offensively. He has only notched two more goals than Danault while matching his assist total of 8 but has done so in far fewer minutes.

Kotkaniemi has put up 1.958 points/60, while Danault has produced just 1.307. To contextualize this, Kotkaniemi sits 157th among NHL forwards while Danault sits at 249th. KK’s numbers make him an average 5th forward, while Danault’s make him an 8th in terms of per 60 offensive output (QuantHockey).

When Kotkaniemi has been given an offensively-minded linemate, he has flourished. Kotkaniemi and Toffoli had good chemistry. When together on the ice at 5v5, the Habs scored 9 goals while conceding 2 and controlled 61.44% of the expected goals. With Toffoli on the ice without the Finnish centreman, the Habs have scored 6 goals and conceded 7, while controlling 53.97% of the expected goals, while the team has scored 5 and allowed 7 while controlling 52.84% of the expected goals with Kotkaniemi but not Toffoli on the ice.

This is a rather unorganized cluster of numbers, but they basically convey that the pair together was phenomenal and that, apart, they have been good but not great. It must be acknowledged that their split and the beginning of the Canadiens’ woes were more or less simultaneous, which can certainly skew the statistics, but perhaps their split contributed to the woes themselves.

Kotkaniemi would certainly have growing pains if given a top-6 role, and having the two top centremen on a team be below 46% in the faceoff dot is far from ideal But Kotkaniemi can produce when given talented linemates and Danault has been unable to do so for quite a while. Give Kotkaniemi those linemates and make a strong checking line centred by Danault to suffocate the opposition.

If ice-time were directly correlated with merit, this swap would have occurred long ago; the time has come to give it a test-run. If it doesn’t work, so be it. But the Habs have two wins in their past 10 games and Danault, who believes he is a top centreman, has recorded just 3 assists in that span. The Canadiens have everything to lose if they keep trying the same losing formula over and over again.

Oh, and Kotkaniemi has been running the second powerplay unit with great success these past two games, taking command of the flow of play. He’s in good form, the Habs should be smart enough to ride the hot hand… which is not Danault.

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