Montreal Canadiens: What Will Josh Anderson’s Contract Look Like?

Montreal Canadiens newest acquisition Josh Anderson is an RFA. What’s his next deal look like?

The Montreal Canadiens acquired Josh Anderson from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Max Domi and a third round draft pick on Tuesday. Both players were restricted free agents at the time of the trade, though Domi has inked a two-year extension already.

The Blue Jackets quickly took care of business. The Canadiens are up next. What will a contract for Josh Anderson look like?

The Habs acquired a power forward right winger who showed in the past he could put pucks in the net as well. He was a 4th round pick back in 2012 and slowly climbed his way up the team’s depth chart.

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The Burlington, Ontario native became a full-time NHL player in 2016-17 and scored 17 goals and 29 points in 78 games that season. the following year he scored 19 goals and 30 points in just 63 contests. That is a 25 goal and 39 point pace over a full season. Anderson surpassed those totals in 2018-19, scoring 27 goals and 47 points in 82 games, continuing his obvious upward trajectory.

That all came to a crashing halt in 2019-20. Anderson underwent labrum surgery and had a broken collarbone, but still managed to play 26 games. He only scored one goal and four points in those games.

Now, the 26 year old is the newest Montreal Canadiens player and he needs a new contract. The Habs have to keep in mind the risk of signing a player who had four points in 26 games last season, but the player will be negotiating like he is going to score 25 next season.

It puts the two in an interesting spot in negotiations. If we forgive Anderson for his most recent season because of injuries, we have to believe he is capable of scoring 25 goals and 50 points next season. He is also an enormous winger at 6’3″ and 220 pounds. He is exactly the type of power winger that the Canadiens have needed for years. At least he was in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

If the Habs are paying a budding power forward who can put the puck in the net, they are going to have to pay what the Philadelphia Flyers paid Wayne Simmonds years ago. It’s hard to find more recent comparables for Anderson because not many wingers are 6’2″ or bigger and also score 25-30 goals in a season.

Simmonds was 24 when the Flyers signed him to a six-year contract with a cap hit just a few coffees under $4 million per season. He had just scored 28 goals and 49 points before putting pen to paper on that contract.

A more recent example would be Brett Connolly who hit the UFA market last summer. He scored 22 goals and 46 points in 2018-19 with the Washington Capitals after slowly working his way up to become a regular NHL contributor. He is 6’3″ but doesn’t play quite as physical as Anderson has with the Blue Jackets.

Still, Connolly signed a four-year contract with a $3.5 million cap hit. I think Anderson’s ceiling is higher, so he might cost a little more than that, but his most recent season is cause for concern.

The bottom line is, I don’t think Marc Bergevin is all that concerned about Anderson’s low point totals from last season. If he was, there is no way he would give up Max Domi and add a draft pick to get Anderson.

I think Bergevin is going to be willing to go long term with Anderson, and I think he is going to pay him more than Simmonds got just because the cap has gone way up.

My best guess at Anderson’s contract is a five-year deal with a $4.25 million cap hit. There is plenty of risk considering the injury history, but there is a lot of potential reward. One of the biggest wingers in the league who plays physical and can score 25 goals is well worth $4.25 million.