The Montreal Canadiens can capitalize on Pittsburgh by having ‘last change’

The Montreal Canadiens are now the home team in this series, and with having last change, they could get something going on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Claude Julien told Montreal Canadiens media that changes were coming. The line blender started to come out a bit in Game 2 against the Pittsburgh Penguins when the Habs struggled to generate offensively, which saw Max Domi move up to play with Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher while Phillip Danault had some minutes with Artturi Lehkonen and Paul Byron. Unfortunately, the Habs didn’t get any scoring until Jesperi Kotkaniemi got his second with 2:10 left in the third.

Lineup changes are one thing, but the Habs need something else. They need to figure out a way to reduce the amount of Grade A scoring chances they’re allowing the Pittsburgh Penguins, especially that top-line. Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel have been incredible in all situations, and their expected goal shares are a product of the kinds and location of shots they’re getting.

On the other hand, the Montreal Canadiens need to find a way to generate more for themselves. Looking at the scoring chances from Game 2, the Habs had the majority of them come from the right faceoff dot with very few in comparison to the Penguins in front of the net. Pittsburgh kept Montreal to the outside, and it’s possible being the home team can change that a bit.

Having last change can be a difference-maker, but it all depends on what Julien chooses to do with it. As the home team for the next two games of the series, the Montreal Canadiens can dictate who plays against who in the event of play stoppage (except for icings).

Julien can use this to his advantage to keep his more defensive-inclined players on Crosby or his more offensive-inclined players against Pittsburgh’s depth. If the Habs find themselves generating a lot of pressure and Matt Murray is forced to cover the puck, they can continue that with rolling out another flurry-chaotic-like line.

Faceoffs are going to be key, and both teams have been fairly even on that front save from a few areas. This is from Game 2:

               Montreal Canadiens FO%                                                  Pittsburgh Penguins FO%

If Domi wants to be used at centre, he needs to start winning more draws, especially with last change in place. It won’t matter who the Habs have out on the ice if they can’t get the faceoff and start working the puck in Pittsburgh’s zone. The same goes for Kotkaniemi, but it’s not nearly as bad and the only blip in his resume for the Stanley Cup Qualifier so far.

Things are tied 1-1 at the moment, but the next game is going to be huge. The Montreal Canadiens have an advantage here that they can exploit; it’ll be up to Claude Julien as to whether it’s used at all.