Canadiens: Who Is Most Likely to be Selected By Seattle Kraken?

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The Montreal Canadiens have one year before they have to worry about the expansion draft. Who is most likely to be taken by the Kraken?

The Montreal Canadiens have a lot on their minds right now. They are preparing for a play-in series with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the middle of the summer. They have two players who had tested positive for Covid-19 who just returned to practice. They have a busy offseason coming up with a salary cap that has flatlined and surely changed the plans of many NHL teams.

Also lurking in the not so distant future is the next NHL expansion. The Seattle Kraken were officially born on Thursday and will hold an expansion draft next summer to fill out their roster.

While there are more pressing issues on the Habs plate right now, any moves they make will have an impact on their expansion protection list. Teams are allowed to protect either seven forwards, three defensemen and a goaltender or eight skaters and a goaltender.

The last time we saw this was in 2017 when the Vegas Golden Knights joined the league. The Canadiens, like most teams, protected seven forwards, three defenders and Carey Price and lost Alexei Emelin to the expansion franchise. That gave the Habs an additional $4 million in cap space for the summer, but they used it to sign Karl Alzner as a replacement for the departed Russian defender.

You could say that losing Emelin wasn’t a bad thing for the Habs, but adding a similar type player in Alzner hasn’t really worked out.

So, who are the Habs going to protect this time around? Well, their roster could change between now and then, and they also have a number of pending unrestricted free agents which will make things interesting. Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Tatar, Joel Armia and Jeff Petry will be free agents next summer if they aren’t extended before then. You could make a case that all of them should be protected, but if they aren’t signed it doesn’t make sense to protect them.

Also, it is important to keep in mind that players playing in their first or second pro season do not need to be protected. Seattle can’t take a player that hasn’t finished three pro seasons. So, the Habs don’t have to protect Ryan Poehling, Cayden Primeau, Alexander Romanov, Jesse Ylonen, Josh Brook, or Nick Suzuki.

Another note is that players with no movement clauses need to be protected. The only Habs player that affects is Carey Price, although he would obviously by the goaltender protected anyway.

Who will they protect? And who will be released to the Kraken? Let’s take a look at three different scenarios.

OTTAWA, ON – JANUARY 11: Cale Fleury #20 of the Montreal Canadiens. (Photo by Jana Chytilova/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images) /

If the Habs protect 7 forwards, 3 defencemen and 1 goaltender.

One way to look at an expansion draft is, the most players you can protect is ten skaters and a goaltender, so just protect the best ones you have. If the Habs are going to go down this route, it would lead to some difficult decisions both up front and on the blue line.

At forward, the Habs would want to protect their top line of Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher. It’s the best possession line in hockey, so why would they want to lose a piece of it for nothing?

Who else would they protect. Well, they aren’t going to let Jesperi Kotkaniemi escape just before he turns 21 years old, so he is protected. Jonathan Drouin and Max Domi are two key players up front as well and have lots of offensive potential. That makes six forwards protected and only one more spot.

Making a case for that last forward spot is a trio of solid two-way players. Artturi Lehkonen is 25 years old and a key performer on the penalty kill. He leaves a lot to be desired in the goal scoring category but has shown flashes of offensive potential and is a terrific defensive player.

Joel Armia is a very similar player to his countrymate Lehkonen. He is a great defensive player, plays a big role on the penalty kill, can shutdown the opposition’s best players, and he has shown a little more offence than Lehkonen. He is a big, right-hand shot and the Habs are a little weaker on the right side right now. They do have Jesse Ylonen and Cole Caufield arriving shortly, but losing Armia would sting.

Paul Byron is the veteran presence up front for the Habs at 31 years of age. He is also a solid two-way player and proved to be a consistent 20 goal threat. He is among the fastest players in the league, kills penalties and makes quick, smart decisions all over the ice. He makes $3.4 million until the end of the 2022-23 season, while Lehkonen and Armia are free agents next summer.

If you had to pick just one from this group of three, I’d take Armia. He is a bit of a late bloomer, but fills a void on the Habs top six with ease, or plays a shutdown role from the third line. I’d be most confident in Armia’s ability to provide offence for the next few years, but losing Lehkonen would hurt for sure.

That’s just the forwards. The choices are no easier on defence. Well, general manager Marc Bergevin talks about Shea Weber like he is his first born son so I think it’s obvious the Canadiens captain will be protected. Who else?

Jeff Petry makes a strong case, but he will be 33 years old at the time of the draft and is also a pending unrestricted free agent. Another strong season like we have become accustomed to seeing and Petry will force the Habs to re-sign him and protect him.

That leaves one final protection spot for Cale Fleury, Victor Mete, Ben Chiarot and Noah Juulsen. The final decision will have to be based on who plays best next season. Fleury is just 21 and looked fine playing a third pairing role at the NHL level this season. Mete is 22 and hasn’t developed as quickly as many hoped, but is a valuable puck moving defenceman on a weak left side. Juulsen is just 23 and missed so much time he is almost the forgotten piece. He has all the tools to be a top four defender in the future. Juulsen is the guy I would pick because I think he has the most potential of the trio.

That would leave Lehkonen Byron, Mete and Fleury open for the Kraken. Getting depth forwards will be easy for the new team in Seattle, so I’m sure they would take wither Mete or Fleury. It would be tough for the Habs to lose one of those defencemen, but every team has to lose somebody. With his skating ability and experience at a young age, I’m guessing the Kraken would select Mete in this scenario.

MONTREAL, QC – DECEMBER 04: Max Domi #13 of the Montreal Canadiens. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /

What if Habs protect eight skaters and 1 goalie?

What if the Habs look at the first scenario and decide they don’t want to lose Mete. They can protected more than three defencemen if they want, but then they can only protect a total of eight skaters.

So, let’s say they protect Weber, Petry, Juulsen and Mete. That gives them four defenders to hang on to for the foreseeable future. Of course, this again assumes that the pending UFAs are re-signed, but we will talk more about that in the next scenario.

That would still leave Fleury unprotected, but the Habs could only keep four forwards in this situation. If they only keep four forwards, they are far more likely to lose someone up front than on the back end.

Who would the Habs protect if they can only keep four forwards? Well, they won’t want to lose a recent third overall pick so Kotkaniemi is protected. Brendan Gallagher is the heart and soul of the team so he as to be kept as well.

That only leaves two protection slots for Domi, Drouin, Tatar and Danault. Tatar was the team’s leading scorer this season, Domi was the leading scorer last season, Drouin probably has the most offensive potential of the four and Danault is a two-way beast who is already a Selke Trophy candidate.

There isn’t really a wrong answer if you only get to pick two from this group. I’d hang on to Drouin because he has the talent to be a top scorer on the team for several years. Danault is such an important part of a team and maybe isn’t a first line centre, but keeping him would give the team tremendous depth at centre with Danault, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi.

That leaves Domi and Tatar, the team’s last two leading scorers up for grabs. It would keep another defender in town, but I don’t think this scenario gets a lot of traction for Montreal. Losing Max Domi in an expansion draft to keep Mete would be catastrophic.

So, what is the most likely scenario?

MONTREAL, QC – FEBRUARY 25: Paul Byron #41 of the Montreal Canadiens. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /

Habs can protect UFAs without officially putting them on protection list.

Protecting seven forwards, three defenders and a goalie is what most teams will do. If the Habs are to protect the best at each position, they are likely to lose Victor Mete. They could elect to protect four forwards and four defencemen, but that would mean losing a great young forward so it’s not likely to happen.

To this point, we have basically assumed the Canadiens are going to re-sign all of their pending free agents. This list includes Gallagher, Tatar, Danault, Armia and Petry. Maybe the Habs want to, and will, re-sign all of these players but the timing of those contracts could give the Canadiens additional protection in the expansion draft.

The expansion draft is going to happen after the 2020-21 season and shortly before the 2021 NHL Draft and free agency. So, if the Habs are creative and smart about this, they can protect all of their potential free agents without actually putting them on a protection list officially.

For example: let’s say Marc Bergevin approached Gallagher and offers him a handsome contract extension for six years and $6.5 million per season. Gallagher thinks it is fantastic because he wants to stay in Montreal forever and, well, that’s a lot of money.

Here is how the team can get creative. Instead of signing that contract right away, they can ask Gallagher to wait until after the expansion draft. Then, they don’t protect Gallagher in the expansion draft. Now, the Kraken have to choose between Mete, who is signed, or Gallagher who is a free agent six days after the draft (and already agreed to stay in Montreal, though Seattle technically wouldn’t know that). Then, even if Seattle takes Gallagher, he can just refuse to sign with them for a few days and return to Montreal when free agency opens.

There is some risk to this strategy for Montreal. It is possible that Seattle takes Gallagher, offers him a ridiculous amount of money, and he has a change of heart and signs with the Kraken. However, there is far more risk for Seattle who would be passing on Mete and could likely end up with nothing if Gallagher goes to free agency.

Imagine if the Habs use this strategy with all of their UFAs. Suddenly, they can essentially protect 11 forwards, four defenceman and Carey Price.

Their official protection list would then be: Drouin, Domi, Kotkaniemi, Byron, Lehkonen, Jake Evans and Charles Hudon up front with Gallagher, Tatar, Armia and Danault unprotected, but also unrestricted free agents a few days later. If they all have extensions with the Habs in their pockets, the Habs have essentially protected 11 forwards. Heck, they could even sign Tatar and Armia ahead of time and protect them instead of Evans or Hudon.

On defence, this could leave Petry unprotected, but also not an enticing piece for the Kraken. So, the Habs could officially protect Weber, Juulsen and Mete while also having a deal negotiated with Petry.

Next. Habs close to final playoff roster. dark

In this scenario, the Kraken would have their choice of either Cale Fleury or Ben Chiarot. They wouldn’t be interested at all in any forwards available to them, and aren’t likely to want Charlie Lindgren either. They would probably settle on Chiarot who would have one year left on his contract and could fetch them a decent return at the trade deadline.

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