Given the stats, the Montreal Canadiens must pursue chaos over structure
Claude Julien may feel that the Montreal Canadiens must play safe hockey have against the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the opposite may be the way to go.
This year’s road to the Stanley Cup Playoffs is going to be different for several reasons. Clearly, the format and the fact that most if not all teams involved are going to be as close to 100% healthy as usual stick out the most. But there’s also the fact that teams have had a lot more time to prepare for their opponent than usual. So even though training camp has been going on for three days, the Montreal Canadiens have been preparing for the Pittsburgh Penguins for longer than that.
Sure, everything was voted for and finalized last week, but we’ve known for the longest time which team the Habs were facing. Claude Julien and his coaching staff were likely sitting at home with notepads and video of previous game tape getting ready for that behemoth of a competition weeks before Phase 3 began.
So far in camp, there haven’t been many surprises.
The top line of Philip Danault, Brendan Gallagher and Tomas Tatar is still intact and will likely get those assignments against Sidney Crosby. Jesperi Kotknaiemi has returned to his usual third line spot with Paul Byron and Artturi Lehkonen while the top-four of Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot, Victor Mete and Jeff Petry has remained.
Changes have come via absences in training camp starting with Max Domi, who’s participation in Phases 3 and 4 is still up in the air. Nick Suzuki has gotten that second-line centre spot in his stead with Jonathan Drouin and Joel Armia on his wings. There’s also a battle on the bottom pair with Brett Kulak and Xavier Ouellet having missed the last two practices leaving room for one of Noah Juulsen, Cale Fleury or Josh Brook to crack the lineup.
Knowing Julien, he’s likely pushing for structure against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They’re a veteran team with a lot of championship experience and know how to grind their way to a win or light up the scoreboard. With that in mind, the Habs may be planning to play a more conservative style of hockey, one that doesn’t give up too many chances to lighten the load on Carey Price.
Unfortunately, Montreal Canadiens have seen the downpours of the strategy in the form of losses. During the Habs’ sets of losing-streaks, a handful of them had come in regulation losing by one goal. And generally, these would come via a battle back in the scoreboard that came up just short.
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When Montreal goes into the mindset of shutting things down right off the opening faceoff, they spend too much time worrying on focus such that if they end up in a deficit, there isn’t enough time to gain a lead or tie the game. They may be playing the right way, but they’re still losing hockey games.
Taking a more chaotic approach to this series may be a trump card the Montreal Canadiens may want to pursue instead.
The Habs were a top-five team this season in expected goals-for/60 at 2.47, the same as the Toronto Maple Leafs and better than the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning. They were also a top-five team, third-best to be exact, in both regular scoring chances for/60 and high-danger scoring chances/60 (all this coming at 5v5).
They’re a chaotic team by nature, and you can get that sense by how they play in the offensive zone when on their game. It’s a relentless forecheck, and that top Danault line sets the tone while the others follow suit. However, when the Canadiens tried to give into their chaotic impulses and put more of an emphasis on offence, they’d get flamed not being able to keep up with the other team’s skill. “Loose hockey,” as some would call it.
Here’s the thing, and let’s go back to the fact that the Habs were on par with the Leafs, Lightning and Capitals generating scoring chances who are third (158), first (162) and fifth in overall goals (156) at 5v5 for this season. Another team that was up there in expected goals-for/60 was the Los Angeles Kings at 2.45. However, they finished 28th in the league in points and had the third-worst goal total at 5v5 with 118.
There’s one clear difference between the Habs and Kings vs. the Leafs, Lightning and Capitals: clear-cut goal-scoring threats. Tatar and Gallagher led with way with 22 goals this season, but the team’s scoring is mostly spread throughout the roster. The Kings were similar with Anze Kopitar having the most at 21 while Alex Iafallo, Dustin Brown and Tyler Toffoli, to name a few spread the wealth. Neither of these teams had any 30-goal scorers, while those other teams had players in the high-20s, the 30s, and even high-40s.
The Montreal Canadiens can’t rely on a conservative style of play. They can’t sit back, defend and defend and wait for an opportunity to strike. And it’s not like the Habs have a lethal powerplay to make teams pay for if they take a penalty (17.7% – 22nd in the league).
It’s a risky method, but channelling more of that chaos could be the more successful plan at hand. It’ll definitely put even more pressure on Carey Price and more strain on the blueline, but it may be the way.
Many are giving MoneyPuck flack for their prediction of the Habs winning over the Penguins; however, their models prioritize things such as flurry-adjusted expected goals. Montreal excels in that area of the game with players who aren’t afraid to crash the net and score off of second, third or even fourth chances. Chaos creates those opportunities.
Nick Suzuki is in the starlight. dark. Next
I understand Julien’s reluctance to pursue this style of play against Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. At the same time, if Matt Murray is on his game, those flurries may be stopped more often than not. But with a short series, the Montreal Canadiens will have to pull out all the stops. And chaos may be the way to reach it.