Montreal Canadiens have shocking odds against the Pittsburgh Penguins

Many are deeming the Montreal Canadiens as the clear underdog against the Pittsburgh Penguins, but some projections actually say it’s the opposite.

There’s nothing like a good ol’ underdog story. A team comes into a situation with no hope or prospect of winning and is instead happy for the opportunity to be there and compete but ends up doing the thing and getting the ‘W.’ The Montreal Canadiens should know all about that as their upset against the Washington Capitals back in 2010.

The Capitals were the best team in the NHL with 121 points while the Habs just squeaked into the playoffs with 88 points. The series was going as well as many predicted with Montreal going down 3-1 in the series after four games. But they dug in, battled back, and wound up winning the series after a 2-1 victory in Game 7.

The camp of Habs fans who aren’t looking at the second draft lottery is hoping something like that can happen again. Pittsburgh isn’t the best team in the league, but they are one of the best in the last decade with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin at the head of all their success.

Carey Price is the focal point of any hope the Montreal Canadiens may have in this series, but it’s going to take a lot of things going right for them to do it. And that’s what makes the current odds for Montreal so puzzling.

MoneyPuck is a website and Twitter account you probably see more of closer to the end of the series. They have projections and present the chances of a certain team making the playoffs, winning a round, winning two rounds, etc.

The platform released their projections for the Stanley Cup Qualifier and onward with the numbers showing the Montreal Canadiens being heavily favoured over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

It’s jaw-dropping as the percentage split isn’t even close (relatively speaking), with the Habs having a 59.6% chance of making the playoffs.

According to their site, MoneyPuck creates these odds by simulating the rest of the season 100,000 times, making use of their pre-game prediction models. Their model includes things like shooting percentage, save percentage, unblocked shot attempts for, expected goals from non-rebound shouts and expected goals from special team situations. This list is heavily simplified, as a lot of calculations and projections go into this.

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Based on their model, it seems as if their analysis for the Montreal Canadiens is mostly based on Carey Price and something they call Flurry Adjusted Expected Goals. The latter are those occurrences of scrums and chaos where a team is continuously jabbing away at a puck before the goaltender losing sight of it, and it trickles in over the goal line.

That’s one of Montreal’s specialties, especially players like Brendan Gallagher, who live in the crease. Tomas Tatar has also scored goals in this manner and going back to his rookie season, this was how Artturi Lehkonen generated a lot of offence. This isn’t to say the Penguins have no one on their team who score that way, but it’s safe to say the Montreal Canadiens rely on that strategy a little more.

Does this mean the Habs are destined to beat Pittsburgh? No. It’s only a projection, and projections differ based on models being used.

To contrast MoneyPuck’s numbers, Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (paywall) had in his projection of the Stanley Cup Qualifier and eventual playoffs that Montreal had a 38% chance to Pittsburgh’s 62%. It doesn’t mean one is wrong, and the other is right.

Platforms make use of different sets of data. Luszczyszyn’s is based on 50,000 simulations and emphasizes Game Score Values Added of each player on the team. The Pittsburgh Penguins have better players than the Montreal Canadiens, that’s a fact, so that is going to appear more and have a better impact in his model vs. MoneyPuck’s.

It’s just the trick of the trade, and although neither gives you a concrete answer as to what is going to happen, it gives you a lot to think about concerning what could happen in that series.