The Montreal Canadiens can really benefit from the flat salary cap
The ceiling for the salary cap isn’t going to go up by much over the next few years, and ironically, the Montreal Canadiens can make use of it.
When the Chicago Blackhawks decided to sign both Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews to contracts with $10.5 million cap-hits, they were banking on an increase in the salary cap. The Toronto Maple Leafs likely had the same thoughts after signing Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner to double-digit cap hits. Unfortunately for them, a flat cap can really be detrimental to their financial room and with the current state of the NHL, teams are going to be affected by it differently. The Montreal Canadiens, however, can benefit from it.
That may sound odd to say considering how impactful the salary cap is. Drafting has become as important as ever, while bad decisions can really sink your team.
The Blackhawks won three Stanley Cups and are now in the depths of the NHL standings. Winning the third overall pick to draft Kirby Dach helps, but they are far from being the same dangerous team. That, and they made a poor decision in trading Artemi Panarin for Brandon Saad, but I digress.
The Los Angeles Kings won a championship in 2012 and 2014 and are bottom five teams. The only exception to this seems to be the Pittsburgh Penguins. Not only do they have superstars in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but they also hit on a lot of their draft picks, and Jim Rutherford has made some great decisions.
Nevertheless, that’s not going to be the case for the majority of the NHL. They’re going to be hit hard by the flat cap as it’s going to inhibit what they can and can’t do. Teams who thought they were going to cash in during free agency and sign some big names can’t or perhaps a trade was on the horizon.
The Montreal Canadiens aren’t invincible to this, but there are three ways they can benefit from a flat cap.
1) Hometown Discounts
If you ask a lot of hockey analysts, they’ll tell you that there is no such thing as a hometown discount. If you ask others, they’ll tell you hometown discounts hurt the overall team. Take Ray Ferraro, for example.
Players that take “hometown discounts”? Bad idea. What happens when you take less, team signs unhelpful players with the extra cash and you don’t win? Or asks you to waive no-trade? Will they help you going forward? Nope.
— Ray Ferraro (@rayferraro21) October 3, 2018
He’s not wrong on that front. Teams that aren’t afraid to spend to the cap will make use of every single dime. However, hometown discounts do happen, and they can help. One of the most famous is Crosby taking an $8.7 million cap hit with the Penguins. It didn’t seem as much of a discount at the time, and there’s the significance of the number, but his cap-hit being that relatively low helped leave room to set the tone on other deals and for more moves to be made.
Hometown discounts are really beneficial for teams that have multiple players who need to be signed at once. Let’s take the Montreal Canadiens, for example.
This offseason, they’ll have Max Domi and Victor Mete to sign. Odds are Marc Bergevin can get both of them on reasonable bridge deals as they haven’t done enough yet to warrant a massive pay raise, even if they stand out in the Stanley Cup Qualifier. The 2021 offseason is a different story.
That could be the year of massive change for the Habs. Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, Joel Armia and Jeff Petry are all going to be unrestricted free agents.
Losing Tatar in some way, shape or form will be the easiest pill to swallow. You could argue it would be “alright” to lose Armia as well. Gallagher, Danault and Petry are key core players on this team, and I’m sure Bergevin will want to have all three of them when they start seriously competing.
Gallagher is the heart of the Montreal Canadiens. He sets the tone and is a great example of work ethic and fighting for your goals. Danault has been a project since joining the team from Chicago and has improved in both areas of the game so much so that analysts feel he should be Selke votes. Petry is a top defenceman on the blueline and can step up and be the number one if needed.
Another thing about Petry is his importance to the future greatly depends on the growth of Josh Brook and Cale Fleury. Can we expect them to be able to take on those minutes if Petry is gone?
Age may be a factor, but Petry’s game translates to a longer NHL career than the bruting physical types, and that could be worth keeping.
At the same time, they are all determined to win with this team and for this city. That could help Bergevin get lower cap-hits for them. Framing it as, “We can’t afford to keep this team together unless everyone shaves a little bit off their deal” could make the difference. Of course, players are in their right to say no and to demand everything they’re entitled to, but a flat cap gives the Habs that option to persuade their core to stay for cheaper.
2) Helping Hand
This route seems to be the most likely as the Montreal Canadiens have done it before. On June 30th, 2018, the Habs sent Simon Bourque to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for Joel Armia, Steve Mason, a seventh-round pick in 2019 and a fourth-round pick in 2020. It wasn’t a trade to get rid of a prospect, it was a trade specifically for the Jets to get away from Mason’s cap-hit so they could have enough room to possibly resign Paul Stastny.
Montreal bought out Mason and got Armia, who came into his own this season as well as two extra draft picks. All that for taking on a contract and getting rid of it.
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That’s definitely coming for Bergevin. All teams are likely going to get compliance buyouts to help them deal with the flat cap. The last time this took place was after the 2012 lockout, where the cap ceiling had to stay the same as the year before to make up for the shortened season.
If all teams get two, the Montreal Canadiens will easily use one on Karl Alzner. That deal has been haunting the team since it was signed, and considering the fact Alzner has barely played on the team, getting his contract off the books will free up more space and allow him to continue his career elsewhere.
The second buyout would be a mystery. There are no other outrageously egregious deals on the Habs. Shea Weber’s has a great deal of term but not only is he captain of the team, but the final years of his deal also have a great reduction in salary, making it easier to move later. Then there’s the option of Carey Price.
If the Habs want to move on from him, that will open up a lot of space. It wouldn’t only come down to relying on Cayden Primeau as they could also use that money to sign other goaltenders on the open market.
That said, the more likely scenario is the Habs take on a contract to buy it out and receive assets for it in the process. If the return can be similar to the Armia deal, then why not make it happen.
3) Revamped Free Agency
Of all the players in the league right now, the pending UFAs are going to be the most frustrating. If you’re a top producer, your first free-agent frenzy is meant to be your big payout. Especially if you’ve been on a cap-friendly deal for a number of years.
The flat cap is going to change things, and it’s not only because it’ll be on November 01st instead of July 01st.
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Competitive teams can’t afford to shell out a bunch of money on one player when they’ll need to ensure they have space to deal with their own. Something that could happen is we see shorter terms on these free agency deals. Instead of maxing out at seven years, there may be three-year deals kicking around that last the length of the cap constrictions. That way, when they become UFAs again, the cap may not be as restrictive and facilitate those usual paydays.
The Montreal Canadiens don’t have the biggest window to try to win something right now if we’re basing things on Price and Weber. They want to win now, and they can sell that to free agents on shorter terms. The only other teams with a decent amount of space that can accommodate this kind of thing are the Ottawa Senators and Los Angeles Kings, and they are trying to be bad.
New Jersey and Columbus are competition on that front, but the respect for Price and Weber could help push things forward.
By no means does this confirm or predict that the Montreal Canadiens are going to be the place to go once free agency opens. What it does mean is that Bergevin will have a lot more cards to play with than other teams are who are fully cap-strapped with the ceiling staying at $81.5 million next year. And that’s not the worst thing, it only going up by $1 million each of the next two years doesn’t help either.
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It’s all going to be circumstantial when looking at how the Habs get through this. Again, decisions will be key, and Bergevin can’t afford to make another financial mistake like the Alzner deal. If management stays on the right track, they could really take advantage of this flat cap, even if it looks like a massive problem at times.