Who Will the Montreal Canadiens Select in the First Round?

Jake Sanderson is the final player in this tier of players that may very well be off the board by the point the ninth overall pick rolls around. He has been a late riser, solidifying himself as the clear second-best defenseman of the draft class, with many scouts saying that the dropoff from Drysdale to Sanderson is small compared to that between Sanderson and the rest of the pack; with some even suggesting that Sanderson be the best defenseman available this year.

One comparison I’ve seen floating around a lot between Sanderson and a current NHLer has been to a man originally drafted by the Montreal Canadiens, in Ryan McDonagh, who has established himself as a very good #2 defenseman for nearly a decade. While last year’s draft was highlighted by a myriad of top USNTDP prospects, this year’s crop features Sanderson as the only top prospect from the program.

The 6’1″, 185 lbs left-handed defenseman was dominant this past season as the captain of the US National U18 Team, racking up 7 goals and 22 assists in 47 games (0.62 PPG) and added another 2 goals and 14 assists for 16 points in 19 games (0.84 PPG) with the USNTDP in the USHL. What makes these statistics all the more impressive is that he accumulated them as a 17-year-old on a team far weaker than that we saw last year, Sanderson only turns 18 on July 08th.

For comparison’s sake, let us take a look at Cam York, the top USNTDP defenseman of the 2019 draft class, who was selected by the Philadelphia Flyers 14th overall, was 6 months older than Sanderson in their respective draft years and was surrounded by 6 fellow eventual first-round draft picks including five who went among the top 15. York, unsurprisingly outproduced Sanderson, putting up 33 points, including 7 goals in 28 USHL games (1.18 PPG).

However, it is important to note that among all USNTDP players to play at least 15 USHL games this season, none produced at a point per game pace, and Sanderson was very close. Last year, 8 players managed that feat, including York, with Cole Caufield managing to put up over a goal per game and Jack Hughes producing at an exactly 2 points per game pace. With this added context, Sanderson’s 0.84 PPG seems rather impressive next to Cam York’s 1.18.

Sanderson’s skating has also left me more impressed than York’s did, and his defensive game is quite mature, especially for a still 17-year-old athlete. Sanderson is quite a prototypical 2-way defender and has a relatively low floor. My personal evaluation (which comes from watching 9 full games of him playing) would be that he has the potential to be a #1 defenseman, will likely max out as a #2 but will be no worse than a #4. While I would prefer the Habs to select a forward in this draft, if they end up with Sanderson, I would not be disappointed. My hot take for the 2020 draft, however, is that Sanderson will be off the board by the time that Buffalo steps up to make the eighth overall selection.