Even though the Montreal Canadiens are in the Stanley Cup Qualifier, they should still be paying attention to what happens at the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery.
Once the Montreal Canadiens started to cliff dive, eyes quickly turned to the draft. Scouts have been raving about this cohort of prospects comparing it to the 2003 and 2015 years, which produced a boatload of NHL talent. The Habs may not have been dead last in the league, but they were low enough in the stands to secure a top-ten draft pick and perhaps move up. However, that is no longer the case, and that “honour” will go to another team.
Tonight is the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery, which is going to play out a lot differently than in most years. With the league having to go on pause, the 2019-20 regular season didn’t have an official ending. Well, it did, as Gary Bettman confirmed it in his press conference, but not exactly.
At the same time, things are even more complicated as 24 teams are having their season continue instead of the usual 16. Therefore changes needed to be made for this year’s event.
The bottom seven teams who didn’t qualify to continue are in the lottery as usual and will have the following odds to win:
- Detroit Red Wings – 18.5%
- Ottawa Senators – 13.5%
- Ottawa Senators (via San Jose) – 11.5%
- Los Angeles Kings – 9.5%
- Anaheim Ducks – 8.5%
- New Jersey Devils – 7.5%
- Buffalo Sabres – 6.5%
Also included in the lottery will be eight placeholders that are going to belong to an unknown team who is eliminated from the Stanley Cup Qualifier:
- Team A – 6.0%
- Team B – 5.0%
- Team C – 3.5%
- Team D – 3.0%
- Team E – 2.5%
- Team F – 2.0%
- Team G – 1.5%
- Team H – 1.0%
If the lottery victories lie with teams only in that bottom seven pool, there doesn’t need to be anything else that changes. Eliminated qualifying teams will be given each pick in inverse order of their points percentage from the season. Therefore, if the Montreal Canadiens were to be eliminated, they would end up with the eighth pick (Team A odds) assuming it hasn’t won one of the lotteries as they have the worst points percentage of any team in the Qualifier.
If one of the placeholder picks wins one of the lotteries, a second lottery will be held, including said team and the remaining teams eliminated from the Qualifier. Each team will have a 12.5% chance of winning the pick.
As confusing as it may be, it’s smart of the league to have a second lottery. It makes the Stanley Cup Qualifer untankable as even if that pick wins, there’s no guarantee that pick keeps it. Going back to the Montreal Canadiens, if it turns out that the Team A pick wins the first overall pick and the Habs are eliminated by Pittsburgh, there would need to be another lottery to determine whether they keep the right to draft Alexis Lafreniere.
Talk about a recipe for frustration. And to make matters worse, it’s not as if one of the placeholders winning a lottery is impossible.
The Chicago Blackhawks won the third lottery in 2019 with a 3.0% chance to do so, granting them Kirby Dach. Keep in mind, after each lottery is won, the other teams’ odds increase respectively. The Blackhawks had a 2.5% chance of getting the first and a 2.7% chance of winning the second. Turns out 3 was their lucky number.
The Carolina Hurricanes won the second lottery in 2018 and only had a 3.3% chance seeing them add Andrei Svechnikov. Again, their odds for the first pick were 3.0%, while the odds for the third were 3.6%.
It’s unlikely but possible that one of those placeholder picks win one of the lotteries. The question afterwards will be whether the Montreal Canadiens end up in a position to acquire it.
Acknowledgements: Draft odds via Tankathon.