Montreal Canadiens: How Good Can Carey Price Be After Lengthy Layoff?

The Montreal Canadiens look like they could sneak in to the 2020 postseason as the 24th seed. Having Carey Price in goal could make them more dangerous than you would think, but how good can he be after a long break?

The Montreal Canadiens really have no business talking about the 2020 NHL Playoffs. When the league pressed pause on its schedule two months ago, the Habs were ten points back of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. They had 11 games left on their schedule, so even winning all of them would likely not be enough to qualify for the postseason.

However, with the league, and world, thrown into chaos since the middle of March, different scenarios have been bandied about as to how to continue the NHL calendar when the league deems it safe to do so.

Some fans would rather have the whole season scrapped and start fresh in October with the 2020-21 season. However, if the league were to do that, they are pretty much guaranteeing there won’t be fans in attendance next season, which would greatly reduce their revenue for two consecutive years. That’s not ideal. None of this is ideal, which is why it has been difficult to get a consensus on how the league should proceed.

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A scenario that appears to be gaining traction is to bring 24 teams back and expand the playoffs to add an additional eight teams. This would give the 17th-24th ranked teams in the standings a chance to play for the Stanley Cup. It makes sense to include the 17th team as they were very much in the playoff race when the league stopped playing games. But the 24th? Hey, that’s the Habs so we will take it.

If the Habs are going to be the first 24th seed in the history of NHL postseason play, you would assume they have little to no chance of making any noise in playoff games at all. However, they do have an ace up their sleeve in the form of Carey Price, who can steal games from the best of teams, and still has the reputation around the league as the best goaltender in the world today.

Whether a player is the best in the world at his position or not doesn’t really matter in the conclusion of the 2020 season. What matters is, who can go from being stuck on quarantine in their own house for two months to the top of their game with the flip of a switch? Again, arguments can be made that this gives an advantage to younger players, but on the other hand, maybe veteran players took better care of themselves during the layoff?

Who knows? When the season does return, and the 24th seed Montreal Canadiens are in a playoff series, it will basically be like starting a new season. The amount of time off between games will likely be four months, which is longer than an offseason for a team that goes on a deep playoff run.

If the 2020 playoffs is like starting a new season, we can toss out who was hot and who wasn’t back in March. I think we can even forget about the Habs two separate eight game losing streaks. I think. The games played this summer will look more look October games than the regular high intensity, firing on all cylinders, polished style we are used to seeing in the playoffs.

Well, that would be pretty good news for the Canadiens. By the time March rolled around, the Habs were just going through the motions heading toward the end of another non-playoff season. But back in October? They started the year well and were 11-5-3 with a run and gun style that saw them score 3.63 goals per game. Could that style work again after a long break?

Maybe, but their biggest asset is Carey Price and he would have to be on top of his game to lead the Canadiens to any success in an abrupt postseason. So, how has Price looked the past few years to begin a season?

This year, he started well, with a 2.59 GAA and a .914 SV% in ten October games, before dipping to 3.77 and .883 in November. Last year was similar as he began the season with a 2.24 GAA and a .915 SV% in October before dropping to 3.81 and .886 in ten November games. The 2017-18 season was a bad one for the Habs and Price was not immune to that. He began with a 3.64 GAA and .883 SV% in ten October games before playing really well in five November contests. In 2016-17, Price was exceptional early on, posting a 1.40 GAA with a .954 SV% in October and a 1.81 GAA with a .944 SV% in November. He was excellent to start the 2015-16 season as well before being injured and every month he played in 2014-15 was fantastic.

It seems Price used to hit the ground running as the best goalie in the league to begin the year, but the last three years he started fine in October, but hasn’t been able to post good numbers in consecutive months to begin a year for three straight seasons. The past two years he has been good in October and bad in November, while the 2017-18 season saw him start poorly but play well in the second month of the hockey calendar.

So, what does that mean for a restart to the 2019-20 season? Well, it is an unprecedented situation so it is impossible to tell, but it sprinkles doubt on the Canadiens goaltender’s ability to go on a two month run of exceptional play to carry the team on the most improbable run to a Stanley Cup ever.

Could he be excellent for a few weeks or a month? Sure, but he hasn’t been able to string together two good months to start a year since the 2016-17 campaign when he was a Hart Trophy candidate at the end of November.

Now, we can’t realistically be expecting a long playoff run from the Habs in 2020 anyway. However, based on the team’s ability to start a number of the past few years hot, (11-5-3 this season, 11-6-3 last year, 13-1-1 in 2016-17) we could see them storm out of the gates and take down a few contenders before fizzling out.