Montreal Canadiens: Chances of Landing Alexis Lafreniere Might Have Just Gone From Slim To None
The Montreal Canadiens were supposed to host the 2020 NHL Draft and had a slight chance of winning the lottery for the first overall pick. That chance might have just disappeared.
The Montreal Canadiens were scheduled to host the 2020 NHL Draft in late June. As the 2019-20 season unfolded, it started to look like the Habs would walk into the Bell Centre with a high pick. Now, that is only because their season included a pair of eight game losing streaks and they had no chance of making the playoffs, but there was a silver lining.
That silver lining should have been a top ten pick made in their own building early in the draft proceedings. How early was not really in their hands. Due to their current record, they would have held the 8th overall pick, but they also would have to go through the draft lottery before learning exactly when that pick would take place.
Their chances of winning the lottery and moving up to the first overall pick were slim, but we have seen teams jump several spots in the draft lottery each of the past few years. Just last year, we saw the New Jersey Devils jump from third to first, the New York Rangers hop from sixth to second and the Chicago Blackhawks leap from 12th to third overall.
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So, even with the Habs slated to select 8th overall, there was a chance they could jump into the top three. The probability of that wasn’t high, in fact they only had a six percent chance of landing the first overall pick, but they had a 19 percent chance of moving into the top three under the normal draft lottery rules.
The prize of this year’s draft is Alexis Lafreniere. A French Canadian phenom who was among the best players at the World Juniors last season, though he was two years younger than most of the players he was competing against. The superstar left winger scored 112 points in 52 QMJHL games for the Rimouski Oceanic this season.
The chances, however remote, of winning the draft lottery would have made for appointment television for Montreal Canadiens fans. Now, it sounds like those chances have been reduced to zero.
The draft is rumoured to be moving to early June. This would be extraordinarily unusual because the season would not even be completed as teams prepared to make their choices at the draft table. There are some obvious concerns about draft order and trades that become complicated by the fact the regular season hasn’t even finished.
One of the leagues biggest concerns seems to be having the same team win the draft lottery but then also go on a lengthy playoff run. It is not impossible. We saw the Blackhawks jump 11 spots in last year’s draft lottery.
If you look at the current standings, the best teams outside the postseason are the New York Islanders and Vancouver Canucks. It is possible that the Canucks could jump into the top three at the draft lottery and then finish the regular season hot, get into the playoffs, and take out the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights en route to a Western Conference Final.
To avoid this possibility, it sounds like the league is looking into changing their lottery system in this scenario. They would revert back to the old lottery system, where all teams outside the playoffs had a chance of winning the lottery, but they could only move up a total of four spots in the entry draft. With these rules, if the Habs were to win the lottery for a June draft, they would move up from 8th overall to the 4th selection.
This would give the Habs no chance of drafting Alexis Lafreniere this spring. It would also give them almost zero chance of getting Quinton Byfield or Tim Stutzle either.
I’m not sure why the league is so worried about a team getting a top three pick and also making the playoffs, but it puts the Habs in one of the worst spots of any team in the league. They have no chance of making the playoffs this season, and also now have no chance at a top three pick.
The Canadiens still have a great opportunity to grab a great prospect with the 8th overall pick, but the league changing the lottery rules at the last minute hurts the Habs for sure. It would have been exciting to watch the draft lottery, even with the smallest chance of moving up to get Lafreniere. However, in a year full of disappointment for Habs fans, we get yet another dose of bad news in that the slim chance we had of landing Lafreniere after a poor season is now gone too.