The Montreal Canadiens could’ve benefited from another poor season, but with the proposal of the new draft lottery, it seems like luck won’t be with them.
The draft lottery is the silver lining for any NHL team who had a bad season. Some walk into years committed to finishing last to better their odds at the first overall pick while others confront poor circumstances and end up in the bottom ten. The Montreal Canadiens definitely didn’t plan to be where they are, but the loaded skill in this year’s draft has made the reality an easier pill to swallow. And with the likes of Alexis Lafrenière and Quinton Byfield available, this would’ve been the best year to win your way into the top-five.
The Montreal Canadiens weren’t as bad as other teams, but they were in the bottom-ten as the 24th seed in the league. If the season ended normally and no teams changed positions, the Habs would’ve had a 6.0% chance at winning the draft lottery. The odds for the second and third overall picks would get a slight increase for Montreal at 6.3% and 6.7%, respectively.
The chances of the Canadiens staying where they were are much higher than moving up, but you never know what can happen. Last season’s lottery saw the New Jersey Devils move from third to first, and the New York Rangers move from sixth to second. The biggest jump was the Chicago Blackhawks moving from twelfth to third! Chicago was able to draft Kirby Dach with that pick, and he’s already fit in well with the organization.
That’s the power of the draft lottery, a single ball being dropped in a certain way can make the difference. Even though the Montreal Canadiens sit at eighth, who knows where they could’ve finished. However, the new proposal for the draft lottery has put a clamp on that kind of optimism.
Elliotte Friedman shared details from an NHL paper explaining how the 2020 draft and draft lottery could play out. Many are not pleased, and the Montreal Canadiens shouldn’t be as well.
According to Friedman, a draft date of June 5th is on the table. Things can’t return to the way they were with the draft taking place after the Stanley Cup is awarded as that may be pushed back until September at the latest.
That’s to be expected. It’s going to be a year of adapting for professional sports, and the NHL will need to make those difficult decisions. Now we move to the draft lottery.
The ranking of the draft lottery will be based on points percentage instead of overall points. That doesn’t do much for the Montreal Canadiens as they would still sit eight with a .500. As for the winners, instead of a lottery being in place for the top-three picks, which has been in effect since 2016, there would only be one winner.
With all 16 teams getting a crack at it, teams wouldn’t be able to move up more than four spots. That means the best the Montreal Canadiens could draft at is fourth overall. No Lafrenière and no Byfield.
If the draft lottery proposal outlined in tonight's NHL memo becomes reality:
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) May 2, 2020
-- Detroit would be guaranteed No. 1 or No. 2 overall
-- Ottawa could do no worse than owning No. 3 AND No. 4
-- New Jersey, Buffalo, Montreal and Chicago couldn't jump beyond No. 2/3/4/5, respectively https://t.co/tlP5zVthA4
It’s understandable why the NHL would do this. Otherwise, a team that is right on the outside could qualify due to the extended playoff qualification rules and possibly win the lottery and the Stanley Cup. This can make it as “fair” as possible, but it’s a bittersweet feeling of fairness for the Habs.
Nothing has been confirmed as of yet. And even though there will be a lot of blowback from other teams, I feel this may be what the league has to decide on.