The Montreal Canadiens would have missed the 2020 postseason under normal circumstances. These aren’t normal circumstances which has me wondering, would you rather postseason or chance at first overall pick?
The Montreal Canadiens were not going to make the 2020 NHL Playoffs. When the NHL schedule was paused, the Habs were sitting ten points back of the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. They were also ten points back of the Toronto Maple Leafs for third place in the Atlantic Division which would have given them a playoff berth as well.
After playing 71 games in the 2019-20 season, the Habs had 71 points in the standings. That is not even mediocre in the NHL anymore. With loser points thrown around like turnovers in a Maple Leafs-Panthers game, averaging one point per game in the standings had the Habs 24th in the league standings.
With just 11 games left on their schedule, even running the table was not going to be enough to guarantee them a postseason berth. It was going to be the third consecutive season with no playoffs in Montreal.
However, with the season on hiatus, we have officially entered unchartered territory in the National Hockey League. Several different possibilities have been thrown around for how to proceed with the rest of the season when it is safe and possible to do so.
Some of these possibilities include an expanded playoffs where more than the traditional 16 teams get a chance at the postseason. We have heard rumours of a 24 team playoff which would include the Montreal Canadiens as they are the 24th ranked team in the league at the moment.
It is extremely rare that a 16th ranked team wins the Stanley Cup, so the odds would be stacked heavily against the Canadiens if they somehow squeezed into the playoff picture as the 24th ranked team. Though the chances of an extended run would be remote, it would be fun to watch some Habs playoff games after going without any hockey to watch for months.
A circumstance from this scenario though, would be the Habs would likely be removed from the draft lottery if they qualified for the postseason. It just wouldn’t make sense for the league to have a handful of teams that both qualify for the postseason and are in the lottery for the first overall pick. The chances, ever so slight, of the same team winning the Stanley Cup and the first overall pick would be avoided.
This scenario got me thinking. Would I rather have the Montreal Canadiens qualify for the playoffs as the 24th seed or miss the playoffs and stay in the draft lottery and have a chance at the first overall pick?
That first overall pick this year just happens to be Alexis Lafreniere, a superstar left winger from the province of Quebec. He has been tearing up the QMJHL for years and would be the best offensive player we have seen in Montreal in decades.
Even if the Habs remain in the draft lottery, their chances of moving up to get Lafreniere are very slim. Right now, they would hold the 8th overall pick. The probability of them moving up to the first overall pick is just 6%. They do have a 19% chance of jumping up to the top three. However, the most likely scenario is they stay at 8th overall.
Of course, if they qualify for the postseason, they aren’t giving up the pick altogether, they just wouldn’t have a chance of moving into the top three.
Although a player like Lafreniere would obviously help the Habs for more than a decade, the chances of getting him are just too slim to bank on it. The chances of the Habs winning the Stanley Cup are even slimmer, but why not give a rested Shea Weber and Carey Price a chance to do some damage in a postseason?
It would be gimmicky to see the 24th ranked Habs in the postseason. However, it has been three years since we last saw a Canadiens playoff game, so passing on a small chance to move up in the draft to get some playoff action back in the Bell Centre would be the right choice.
Besides, there will still be great players available at 8th overall. So, even if the Habs get swept out of whatever play-in series would begin this 24 team playoff, they could still add a terrific prospect to their already deep pool of young players with the 8th selection.