Montreal Canadiens: Jonas Brodin isn’t enough for Max Domi
The latest talk revolving around the Montreal Canadiens giving up Max Domi in a possible Jonas Brodin trade and if that happens, it can’ be a one-for-one.
Marc Bergevin has a history of one-for-one trades. The most famous one in recent memory is Shea Weber for P.K. Subban, while the Alex Galchenyuk one-for-one saw the Montreal Canadiens acquire Max Domi from the Arizona Coyotes, which brings us to yesterday’s news on the Habs’ third-line centre about management willing to part with Domi in a trade for Jonas Brodin.
Michael Russo’s snippet in the TradeCentre article didn’t say much about the nature of the deal. If all this is true, and the Montreal Canadiens are in on Brodin with Domi going the other way, the Wild defenceman can’t be the only piece the Habs get back.
Brodin is a second-pairing defenceman for the Minnesota Wild averaging about 21 and a half minutes a night. He’s been the “responsible” portion of that pairing, allowing Matt Dumba to play the puck and be more offensive while he stays along the blueline. What is concerning is Brodin isn’t much of an upgrade from what the Montreal Canadiens have in Ben Chiarot.
Offensively, Chiarot is a better option. He generates more shots than Brodin; however, the Wild defenceman is much better at suppressing shots. RelCA/60 tells us this, showing how many shots are directed towards their own net when they’re on the ice vs. off the ice. When looking at this metric, the lower the number, the better.
Chiarot is at 1.52, while Brodin is at -4.05. To add another name into the comparison, Brett Kulak has a RelCA/60 of -5.26, which is better than the other two players. Chiarot is the best of the three in terms of shot generation (RelCF/60) at 5v5 with a 3.5 while Brodin and Kulak are in the negatives at -4.84 and -0.19 respectively. When looking at shot generation, it’s the opposite of shot suppression where the more positive the number, the better.
Shot heat maps tell a similar but different story. We go to Hockeyviz for this one looking at 5v5 shots allowed with each of the three on the ice. Brodin looks the best defensively in this area based on the number and location of shots he denies when on the ice, which equates to a -22% threat level for the Wild.
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What is reassuring about Brodin’s play in his own zone, specifically are the number of shots being denied in front of the net. The Montreal Canadiens have had a problem this season, preventing second and third opportunities to the opposition and allowing them to control the crease. Brodin uses his size to force opponents out of those areas and his stick to tie players up.
Chiarot and Kulak have -1% and -16% threat levels, respectively. Kulak is responsible for denying shots and opportunities from the sides of the net but does allow chances from the slot, which is a dangerous area for any goaltender. Again we see how poor defensively Chiarot is.
Brodin is a defensive upgrade on Chiarot, that’ can’t be denied. What’s concerning would be his role on the team. The 26-year-old is used to second-pair minutes. His TOI hit the high 23s and 24s earlier in his career, but it’s been 19 and 21 minutes for the last five years. If he can maintain performance despite the bump up in assignments, the Montreal Canadiens upgrade on the left side.
However, that doesn’t change the fact that Bergevin can’t make this a one-for-one deal. Brodin isn’t enough for Domi, even if the latter hasn’t had the best season. Domi can play centre and has the ability to score when he’s on his game. Zach Parise is the top left-winger next to Eric Staal currently, but Domi would easily bump Galchenyuk down to the third line if he came over.
That’s not to say the Wild should throw a first and a top prospect at the Habs in the deal. Domi is younger and has more cost control being an RFA at the end of this season vs. Brodin, who is a UFA at the end of the 2020-21 campaign. Minnesota would be getting a player who could be part of the answer for years to come while there’s no commitment for Brodin to stay placing even more pressure on next season.
I see the value in the Brodin trade with a defensive lens, and his cap hit of $4,166,667 is not a problem in the slightest. But a one-for-one deal here wouldn’t feel right. The Wild have some prospects who they need to sign to retain rights on. Shawn Boudrias of the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles is having a great season as a 20-year-old in the QMJHL with 65 points in 49 games. Perhaps that’s an avenue Montreal and Minnesota explore.
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There’s no guarantee Brodin becomes a Montreal Canadien. As Russo pointed out, several teams are interested in him. But just because he fits on this team, doesn’t mean the Habs, and more specifically Marc Bergevin can sell low on their assets to acquire him.