Montreal Canadiens: Just How Good Do They Have To Be To Make The Playoffs?

The Montreal Canadiens started the year well, went on a few tough losing streaks and are far from the playoff picture at the moment. How good do they have to be the rest of the way to get in?

The Montreal Canadiens entered this season hoping to make the playoffs. Most teams hope to get to the postseason, but none were as close and missed out as the Habs in 2019. They had 96 points but were two shy of cracking the wild card positions in the Eastern Conference and were therefore on the outside looking in when the playoffs began.

Making matters worse, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Carolina Hurricanes who were the wildcard teams, both won their opening round playoff series. It had fans around Montreal wondering what could have been, even if they were the 8th seed in the east.

The Habs headed into this season hoping to be just a smidge better in the regular season so they had a chance to answer that first round “What if?” They started well, getting off to an 11-5-3 record and making at least one fan believe they were a contender for the Stanley Cup. (that was me. I was wrong.)

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They immediately went into a tailspin, losing eight straight games but then got things back on track and headed into Christmas break on a high note after winning three of four games in Western Canada. They seemed to shake off their long losing streak and made it appear like a blip on an otherwise impressive resume.

Then came their second eight game losing streak. It felt like the final nail in the Habs coffin. They had far too many teams to pass and too many injuries to overcome and maybe they just weren’t good enough. Whatever the cause of their record was, their season appeared finished at the 45 game marker.

Since then, they continued the Jekyll and Hyde nature of their season by winning four of their next five games leading into their current break. The Canadiens don’t play again for another week, and it gives us time to pause and take a long look at their positioning. Is this recent hot streak enough to say they are back in the playoff hunt? Do they have any chance of getting in? Just how good do they have to in their final 32 games to get into the race?

They currently sit 12th in the Eastern Conference in points with 51 in 50 games. That has them on pace for 84 points which is not nearly good enough to get near the postseason. They need to be far better in the second half, but they could be if they get healthy. They have also added Ilya Kovalchuk and Marco Scandella to the lineup that began the season 11-5-3 so they can definitely be better than 13th in the conference.

Once again, the Blue Jackets and Hurricanes are in the wild card spots. The Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs are hot on their trail. The Hurricanes are on pace for 99 points which would get them a wildcard spot, but without much breathing room with so many teams still in the race.

Now, teams don’t just continue to play at the same pace all year long, but right now the Flyers are on pace for 97 points and the Leafs are on target for 95 and both would finish outside the playoffs if things continue on this trajectory. It’s an inexact science, but it tells you if the Habs finish with 96 again they might just be on the outside looking in again. That means they will need to surge to 98 points if they want to be in the playoffs.

With 51 points in 50 games, that means the Habs would need 47 points in their final 32 games to get in. That is a record of 23-8-1 over the final three months of the schedule. That’s a tall task. The only team to have 47 points in their first 32 games this season was the Washington Capitals who started the year 22-5-5 and had 49 in their first 32 games.

The Habs are off for a week, with their next game coming next Monday against the Washington Capitals. They are somehow going to have to find a way to be the league’s best team for the final 32 games to have any chance of a playoff berth.

With Paul Byron and Brendan Gallagher due back from injury soon and Jonathan Drouin not too far behind them, the team will be as healthy as they have been since their record was 11-5-3. Even that record isn’t a good enough pace to get in now. With Carey Price playing well once again heading into the break, it is going to take a Herculean effort from him to get the Habs back in the playoff race for real.

We have seen it from Price before, and this team can score better than most Habs teams we have seen in the past two decades so they could have a really strong finish to the season. But 47 points in their last 32 games? I wouldn’t hold my breath.