The Montreal Canadiens are off to a 1-0-1 start to the 2019-20 season. Nate Thompson has been their best player in the face-off circle but is that enough to make him a regular?
The Montreal Canadiens have embraced a bit of a youth movement this season. Nick Suzuki is a 20 year old forward that has started the season in the top six. Cale Fleury cracked the lineup unexpectedly as a 20 year old right defenseman. Victor Mete and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are playing big roles with the team again and Ryan Poehling will be on the roster very soon.
There is a lot of youth playing for the Montreal Canadiens right now. The oldest forward in their top nine right now is a 28 year old Tomas Tatar. Having one of the youngest groups of forwards allows the team to play with speed for 60 minutes per night, Or 65, because apparently every game is going to a shootout this year.
The oldest player to suit up for the Habs this season is 35 year old center Nate Thompson. He was acquired from the Los Angeles Kings as a pending unrestricted free agent at last year’s trade deadline for a fourth round draft pick.
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Thompson’s calling card was his ability to win face-offs. He has not disappointed in that department since arriving with the Canadiens, but he also does not bring much else to the table. He is the lone forward who can’t skate at breakneck speed and as a result, hasn’t been able to mesh well with Paul Byron and Jordan Weal as his wingers thus far.
Thompson has done a great job at the face-off dot in his two games this season. He has taken 25 draws and won 16 of them, an impressive 64% winning percentage. That is great and it is tops among Habs centres, but are face-offs important enough to keep a specialist in the lineup?
If you take a quick look at the rest of Thompson’s numbers, you quickly see he is a face-off specialist and not much else. He had 13 points in 78 games last season and has been absolutely dominated at even strength so far this season.
When Thompson has been on the ice, the Habs have been outshot 19-15, outscored 4-1 and allowed 14 scoring chances to the 10 they have created in less than 22 minutes. Two games is a small sample size, but Thompson was near the bottom of the Habs list in Corsi-For percentage, shot percentage, goals percentage and scoring chance percentage among regulars last season as well.
Does winning face-offs make up for not controlling the shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances and goals scored while Thompson is on the ice? Of course it does not. Faceoffs are a fairly overrated statistic to begin with. Next time you are watching a hockey game, count how many face-offs turn into rugby scrums and battles for a loose puck between two players who didn’t even take the faceoff. Picking a winner of a face-off is a toss-up nearly half the time. It’s not like Thompson is gaining full possession of the puck and creating a scoring chance every time he gets credit for a face-off win.
Also, Danault was the Canadiens best face-off man last season with a 55.5 winning percentage. Thompson was second at 55.1%. Tied with Thompson was Jordan Weal who is currently playing right wing on Thompson’s line. Weal took 156 faceoffs in just 16 games with the Habs and won at exactly the same rate as Thompson.
Weal is not known as a face-off specialist like Thompson, but he can clearly win them as often as the 35 year old. Weal is also far more effective with the puck and can create scoring chances at a far greater frequency. I know it has only been two games, but it is already time to move Weal to center, scratch Thompson and put Nick Cousins into the lineup.
The player who is going t put a lot of pressure on Thompson for his lineup spot is Ryan Poehling. The 20 year old center has far more offensive potential than Thompson and already has better defensive awareness than the penalty killing Thompson. It’s just a matter of time before Thompson gets shoved aside for Poehling, even if the youngster struggles in the face-off dot.