The CBA is something all fans dread to think about, but a decision needs to be made that can impact the Montreal Canadiens and the rest of the NHL.
Everyone’s memory is still fresh from 2012. Not necessarily with the Montreal Canadiens and how they were fist in the Atlantic Division while P.K. Subban won the Norris. But because that was the year the NHL had another lockout.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t the first. Everyone – players, general managers, and owners – lost the 2004/05 season which saw the salary cap come to light in the NHL. Before that was the 1994/95 lockout which had half of the season lost while the NHLPA went on strike two years prior in 1992.
No one wants another lockout, but it seems as if a work freeze is in the mix. September is a happy time as it means training camp and the regular season is right around the corner. What it also means is a decision can be made by either the league or the player’s association (NHLPA) as to whether the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) will continue to be in effect or not.
The NHL can choose to opt-out of the current CBA on September 1st while the NHLPA can do the same if they wish on the 15th. If either side chooses to do it, the current CBA will expire on September 15th, 2020 and likely lead to a work stoppage unless something isn’t figured out. Yeah, a lockout.
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The previous lockout had revenue sharing as one of the hills both sides were prepared to fall on, and it wound up, resulting in a 50-50 split of shares. This time around, there are several things that will come into play, including escrow.
Escrow was a means to help establish the 50-50 split decided after the previous CBA. A percentage of the player’s salary is taken every paycheck and sits somewhere until the end of the season. After the year is over, the league calculates what the revenue was, and that determines how much of that money the players get back.
You can see how that would be a problem for the players. The percentage of escrow is proportional to the cap increase each year. That’s a reason why the salary cap didn’t go up as much as many initially thought. Early projections had it being around $83 million, but the NHL and NHLPA agreed on a smaller increase ($81.5 million) to manage escrow.
Let’s look at a Montreal Canadiens player for an example. Jonathan Drouin is the highest-paid forward on the team with an annual cap hit of $5.5 million. His total salary for this upcoming year matches his cap hit, but it was a million dollars more in the first year of his contract. Aside from Drouin’s living expenses, including what he has to pay Allan Walsh, a percentage of his $5.5 million will go to escrow with no guarantee of it coming back in full.
Another thing that may come up in the CBA negotiations comes from all the buzz from RFA-mania this summer. Teams have lost some control when it comes to RFAs nowadays as younger players want to be paid more and sooner. There are 10+ key players who have yet to sign, and the new CBA may include some means of allowing teams to have that control back.
Imagine if Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Ryan Poehling grow their games to a spectacular level that warrants a massive pay increase. Marc Bergevin has yet to have difficulties with a contract negotiation, save for Subban in 2012, but those could be an issue if he’s not careful.
The main downer of this is the risk of no hockey. What if the Montreal Canadiens get close to the playoffs again but make progress with no means of building on it the following year? What if some of the prospects, like Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield (who knows), are ready but need to wait for their NHL debuts due to another shortage. Granted, the AHL should still be open though it won’t be the same.
The next few days are going to be very interesting, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of the NHL or NHLPA opt-out. After that, the dark days truly do begin, and they’re coming for everyone.