The Montreal Canadiens have most of their forwards returning next season except for Andrew Shaw. He played a top six role late in the season, is it possible that Paul Byron fills that void?
The Montreal Canadiens made an incredible steal from the Calgary Flames when they plucked Paul Byron off the waiver wire at the beginning of the 2015-16 season. The Flames evidently needed that roster spot for future two-goal-scorer Brandon Bollig and to hang on to the three headed goaltending monster of Jonas Hiller, Karri Ramo and Joni Ortio.
The only people terrified by that monster would have been fans of the Calgary Flames. Those fans were not too pleased when they saw Byron put on waivers and Bollig penciled into the opening night lineup either.
Byron was not given a fair chance to prove himself with the Flames, mostly because of his size. The forward from Ottawa is just 5’9″ and 165 pounds. He did not fit the mold of what the Flames wanted in a bottom six winger, so they sent him to the waiver wire.
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In one of his wisest moves to date, Marc Bergevin, general manager of the Montreal Canadiens put in a claim. Byron’s speed is his greatest asset and it was on full display in his first season with the Habs. He scored 11 goals and 18 points in 62 games that season, but his ability to pick off passes and create scoring chances, especially via the breakaway showed he had untapped offensive potential.
Watching Byron play and the way he created offence, you would think he could score 20 goals easily, even if he missed three quarters of his breakaways. The problem was, that season and the years before in Calgary, he missed on more than three quarters of his breakaways.
Something changed heading into the 2016-17 season and Byron started filling the net. He played all 82 games that year and doubled his previous best goal total by scoring 22. He added 21 assists to finish the season with 43 points.
He followed that season up with an impressive 2017-18 campaign. He once again scored 20 goals, and added 15 assists for 35 points in 80 games. It was a long season for the struggling Canadiens, but Byron stepping up and proving the previous season was no fluke was a bright spot.
This past season, Byron kept up the pace he was on for the two years prior. He was held to 56 games due to an ill-advised fight with Mac Weegar that led to a concussion. However, in those games he scored 15 goals and 16 assists. That is a 22 goal and 45 point pace over a full season.
These numbers are great for a guy you found on the waiver wire. They become even more impressive when you factor he is a key member of the penalty kill, but rarely gets time on the power play. Byron had one power play point last season and three while shorthanded. That means 27 of his 31 points came at even strength.
Over the past three seasons with the Habs, when Byron was scoring at a 21 goal and 44 point pace, only nine of his 109 points came with the man advantage. Also, he rarely, if ever is penciled into the lineup as a top six winger.
Byron’s most frequent linemates last season were Jesperi Kotkaniemi at centre and either Joel Armia or Artturi Lehkonen on the other wing. He had a stretch of games where he played with Jonathan Drouin and Max Domi, but played almost as much with Nate Thompson and Jordan Weal.
Basically, he has been a third line winger that gets bumped into the top six occasionally when injuries occur and he receives little to no power play time.
Does that mean it is time to give Byron a chance to show he can be a top six winger? He keeps scoring 20 goals from the third line on a team that has been starving for goals recently.
If you break down his production a little further, he certainly makes a strong case to be a top six forward – at least. Byron scored 2.28 points per 60 minutes of ice time last season. Meaning, if he were able to play every minute of the Habs season, he would have averaged 2.28 points per game.
That ranked 108th among forwards in the NHL last season. There are 31 teams in the league, and three players on every line, so 93 players can be considered top line talent and 186 players have to be thought of as top six forwards. Byron ranked 108th which makes him not just a top six point producer but puts him close to first line production.
If you look at just his even strength scoring, it is even more impressive. Byron scored 2.39 points per 60 minutes of even strength ice time. This ranks 64th in the entire league. That not only makes him a top six producer at 5 on 5, but makes a case for him to be on a team’s first line.
The only Canadiens that were scoring more frequently at even strength last season were Max Domi, Tomas Tatar and Andrew Shaw. Shaw just so happens to have been traded to the Chicago Blackhawks. I wonder who could fill his role on the top six?
Byron plays a much different style than Shaw. Byron relies on speed, smarts and hockey sense to beat defenders. Shaw is more of a physical, gritty winger who wins battles for pucks and drives to the net with reckless abandon to get his points.
When you look at the Habs roster, a top six producer has left town without replacement. It just so happens, the Canadiens have someone on their roster producing like a top six player from their third and fourth line for the past three years.
Can Byron play a top six role next season? Well, he was a better scorer at even strength than Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault and Jonathan Drouin. He even scored at a higher pace than Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Seguin, Brock Boeser, Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk, Gabriel Landeskog, Kyle Connor, Matthew Barzal and Jamie Benn.
Is Byron a top six winger? I say put him on a line with Max Domi, give him some power play time and make his new four-year deal with a $3.4 million cap hit look like a bargain.