Montreal Canadiens Should Not Offer Sheet Mitch Marner

The Montreal Canadiens have broken the dam on offer sheets by signing Sebastian Aho to a contract. They were unsuccessful in acquiring him which has led to rumours they could be preparing another offer sheet.

The Montreal Canadiens surprised the hockey world when they signed Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet on July 1st. We haven’t seen an offer sheet since the Calgary Flames attempted to steal Ryan O’Reilly from the Colorado Avalanche in 2013.

The Canadiens were able to get the Finnish superstar to sign a five year deal with a cap hit of $8.454 million. The deal was heavily front-loaded with Aho scheduled to get a $12 million dollar signing bonus in the next few days an a another huge bonus on July 1st, 2020.

It was announced yesterday afternoon that the Carolina Hurricanes have officially matched the offer sheet and will be keeping Aho. This was not really a surprise as the Hurricanes said they would be matching the contract on July 2nd, they just waited a few days before making it official.

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Now that the Hurricanes have officially kept Aho, it frees up Marc Bergevin to use the draft picks that would have been sent to the Hurricanes as compensation in another deal if he wishes. There have been rumours since the Aho deal was signed that they could look to offer sheet another player if Aho was retained by Carolina.

There are no shortage of great players that are restricted free agents and available to be given an offer sheet right now. Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor of the Winnipeg Jets come to mind. So does Matthew Tkachuk of the Calgary Flames. Then there is Brayden Point who apparently already told Bergevin he would not be willing to sign an offer sheet as he does not want to risk leaving Tampa Bay.

One player that has been rumoured to be contemplating an offer sheet is Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Mitch Marner.

Mitch Marner is an exceptional hockey player. In just three NHL seasons he has proven to be one of the most offensively skilled players in the league. His creativity and vision with the puck make him dangerous no matter where he is on the ice. He is coming off a season where he scored 26 goals and 94 points, showing he is one of the best scorers in the world.

There are rumours he is going to sign an offer sheet, and rumours that the Canadiens could be looking to send another one after losing out on Aho. Could the oldest rivals in hockey actually create fireworks of this magnitude off the ice?

If it were up to me, I would say no way. Marner is a terrific player and would fit extremely well with any of the Habs top centers. He would be able to wake a dormant power play and turn the Habs into a contender next season.

However, the price tag to acquire him would be simply too much. If the Canadiens don’t want to lose out on another offer sheet, they would have to give Marner a huge contract that would force the Leafs to pass on matching. In order for that to happen, we are talking about making Marner the highest paid player in the league at $13 million per season. Otherwise the Leafs just match and keep him like Carolina did with Aho.

The compensation headed Toronto’s way on a contract with $13 million cap hit? The Habs next four first round picks. Sure, it’s easy to say the Canadiens would be really good if they had Marner and we talking about late first round draft picks. The part of the draft where the Habs recently ended up with Michael McCarron, Nikita Scherbak, Nathan Beaulieu and Jarred Tinordi anyway.

You would trade that group of disappointment for Marner pretty quick. It doesn’t really work that way though. Just ask the Ottawa Senators who traded a first round pick for Matt Duchene a few months after taking a run to the Eastern Conference Final. That pick turned into Bowen Byram, the fourth overall selection in this year’s draft and the best defenseman available.

Four years ago, Carey Price had won just about every award he was eligible to receive. He was the Hart, Vezina and Ted Lindsay Award winner. The Habs won their division that season with 50 wins and 110 points. It seemed likely that Carey Price himself made them a sure bet to make the playoffs for the next four seasons.

Had they given up their next four first round picks at that time, they would have given up Mikhail Sergachev, Ryan Poehling, Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Cole Caufield. Would you trade those four for Marner? Probably not.

That’s why you simply can not produce an offer sheet to anyone in the league with the top compensation of four first round picks. Anything over a $10.5 million annual cap hit would force you to give up the chance of drafting in the first round until 2024.

Imagine the Canadiens offer sheet Marner and then Price gets injured in the preseason. The team misses the playoffs, wins the draft lottery and then the Toronto Maple Leafs head on stage in the Bell Centre to draft Alexis Lafreniere, the next French superstar with the first overall pick that should have belonged to Montreal.

It’s unlikely but it is possible. It might only be as possible as getting Sebastian Aho to come to Montreal by using an offer sheet, but hey, that was worth a shot wasn’t it? It is simply too risky for the Montreal Canadiens to give up four first round picks to the Maple Leafs of all teams.

As good as Marner would be, the price tag is far too high. Marc Bergevin will have to look elsewhere and find another solution to help the Habs get back to the playoffs next season.