Could Phil Kessel be a trade target for the Montreal Canadiens?
Phil Kessel will be on the move soon as the Pittsburgh Penguins retool their roster and it may be worth it for the Montreal Canadiens to inquire on him.
Every year a team in the NHL has their season end sooner than they expected and it sends the organization in waves. The Montreal Canadiens don’t have too much buzz around them despite falling short of a playoff spot, but there are a number of moves Marc Bergevin should do to ensure contention next year. The same can’t be said for the Pittsburgh Penguins which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given the way their season ended and who the team’s general manager is.
The Penguins lasted only four games in the first round. Although the Tampa Bay Lightning suffered the same fate and for the most part had their name on the Stanley Cup in October, Pittsburgh going out the way they did is heartwrenching. Keep in mind this is a team who has Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017.
However, they lost and have a little over $3 million in cap space. Not only does that need to be addressed, but Jim Rutherford is looking to shake up the roster which has put Phil Kessel‘s name out there.
Kessel is on top of TSN’ Trade Bait List at the moment though the 31-year-old being surrounded in trade rumours isn’t a new thing. The difference being now is that it seems like Rutherford is fully prepared to move Kessel.
A top-six forward of Kessel’s calibre could be a great fit on the Montreal Canadiens, especially on the power play. The Habs haven’t been directly linked to the Penguins when it comes to Kessel, but Marc Bergevin has a knack of having deals come out of nowhere. Perhaps this is a possibility.
Phil the Thrill
Kessel’s story started with the Boston Bruins when he was drafted by them fifth overall in 2006. He was part of that infamous trade that sent him to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange for picks that turned into Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton, but it was with the Leafs where he made his stape as a top NHL player. Yet it was in Pittsburgh where he would become a Stanley Cup Champion.
The right-winger is most known for his shot, which has made him a sniping threat. But an underrated aspect of Kessel’s game is his passing. He finished this past season with 27 goals and 55 assists coming off a 92-point campaign (34 goals 58 assists) the year before.
Kessel is also proficient on the power play as 36 of his 82 points this season (12 goals and 24 assists) came on the man advantage. Crosby and Malkin were the main beneficiaries there as Kessel had primary helpers on seven and four of their power play goals respectively.
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When it comes to players flying down the wing, there are few players more dangerous than Kessel. His shot is ridiculously quick, and even though he has a go-to spot he likes to shoot from that can be prepared for, he can still beat most goaltenders.
Something to keep in mind about Kessel is his type of production. He puts up a crazy amount of points each season, but he’s not necessarily a winger who can drive play. This isn’t to take away from the success he’s had even though it does help to play with Malkin who can do it all despite having a “down” year this season with only 21 goals.
The 2016 Stanley Cup run was a different story. That was the birth of the HBK line with Kessel Nick Bonino and Carl Hagelin, and he was the reason for the offence it generated. Kessel led Pittsburgh in playoff scoring putting up 10 goals and 12 assists in 24 games and made a strong case to win the Conn Smythe even though Crosby ended up with the trophy.
One-Dimensional
Not everything is perfect. Two things that have always followed Kessel is his play away from the puck and his perceived attitude.
Only three forwards on Pittsburgh ended the season as minus players: Bryan Rust at -3, Malkin at -25, and Kessel at -19. It’s a definite downgrade from his -4 in 2017 but plus/minus doesn’t tell too much of the story.
What does are his shot generation and shot suppression stats which don’t look too favourable despite the points Kessel puts up. Kessel had a -3.73 RelCF/60 and 6.15 RelCA/60. Ideally, you’d want a RelCF/60 to be as positive as possible while a RelCA.60 as negative as possible.
Based on these two stats, the Pittsburgh Penguins are getting more shots directed towards the net when he is on the ice vs. off. When Kessel is playing, almost four fewer shots are sent towards the opponent’s goal while six more are being sent on the Penguins’ net. And unfortunately, this isn’t a one-off.
Kessel has had a pattern of negative RelCF/60s and positive RelCA/60s in his previous two seasons as well. His first year in Pittsburgh was decent sporting a 4.68 and 0.65 in respective stats.
But when it comes to Phil Kessel, you’re paying for his point production, not so much his overall play. What your paying for is also fairly reasonable considering the raw stat lines at $6.8 million for the next three years and the security behind his health.
Kessel has played in every regular season game since the 2010-11 season. That’s 1082 straight games in the lineup which is a slight silver lining over the defensive issues, especially given his role.
Whispers and Rumblings
A team adding Phil Kessel is adding a top-six forward who strengthens scoring at 5v5 and on the power play. What throws a massive wrench in a Kessel to the Montreal Canadiens scenario is his attitude.
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Bergevin spent last summer addressing that in the Habs locker room and a player like Kessel may not fit. It goes beyond the general manager, think of Claude Julien who had Kessel as a first and second-year pro back in Boston.
His attitude back then wasn’t appreciated too much, and that was one of the defining factors that led to the deal to Toronto in the first place.
Another thing to consider is the price. We can touch on that a bit with the news that the Minnesota Wild has an offer in place for Kessel. Josh Yohe of the Athletic had the information first, but Pierre Lebrun added another layer to the cake.
Apparently, a deal with Kessel to Minnesota will have Jack Johnson join him while Jason Zucker and Victor Rask join the Penguins. Kessel is the defining factor here as he has a no-trade clause and by the look of it, the Wild aren’t one of those eight teams. Additionally, Lebrun tweeted that Kessel isn’t leaning on waiving it to go to Minnesota.
What makes the tweet more interesting is that teams on Kessel’s list have contacted Pittsburgh about acquiring him. Are the Montreal Canadiens on his list?
Justification
Even if they are, there are things besides the attitude and defensive issues that should steer the Habs away from this scenario.
Firstly, you’d like to think Jonathan Drouin can become a Kessel-like player for the Habs down the line. He may not be a goal scorer, but Drouin has the potential to be a top producer and needs time to find another gear to get to that point.
Secondly, if Montreal would be alright with having both Kessel and Drouin on the same team (which seems incredibly offensive-wise), having Johnson come along should be an automatic head shake. Johnson is set to make $3.25 million for the next four seasons and is known as being one of the worst defencemen in the NHL.
Given the Habs need to improve their blue line, adding Johnson would be a massive downgrade considering Bergevin is still trying to figure out what to do with Karl Alzner. At the same time, it’ll be concerning to see what Julien would do if Johnson were in Montreal. Despite the facts and stats against him, he’s a well-respected player and seeing him on the top pair with Shea Weber would be terrifying.
Going back to Pittsburgh, if it takes Zucker and Rask from Minnesota, it may take Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault to pull the trade-off. Danault may be easier to deal with, but Tatar would be tough given his impact on the top line.
Next. Ensuring Success in the Offseason. dark
Adding Kessel definitely looks appealing off the bat but there are a lot of things that come in the way of that. You’d like to hope Drouin can bring his offensive output to that level while keeping his playing style multi-dimensional. If not, free agency could have some options as well.