A Winning Habit
Fansided

The Montreal Canadiens on the positive end of an NHL checkpoint

By Omar L

MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 20: Generic photo of Bell Centre prior the game five of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals between the Montreal Canadiens and the New York Rangers during the 2017 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs on April 20, 2017 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - APRIL 20: Generic photo of Bell Centre prior the game five of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals between the Montreal Canadiens and the New York Rangers during the 2017 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs on April 20, 2017 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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U.S. Thanksgiving has been a checkpoint to predict who will end up in the playoffs and the Montreal Canadiens are within the threshold.

One of the many rules of thumb in the NHL: teams who start well are likely to finish well while those who don’t are going to have a bad time. That’s made U.S. Thanksgiving an important date as hockey minds use it to predict which of the 31 teams will be in the playoffs. And despite their 5-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils, the Montreal Canadiens are still in a good position as far as the milestone goes.

Which ties into the second rule of thumb: teams that are in a playoff spot by U.S. Thanksgiving are most likely to be there at the end of the season. It’s not the perfect indicator of a playoff berth, but it’s been a handy tool.

Let’s take last season as an example. This time last year, these 16 teams were in a playoff spot:

Eastern Conference:

  • Tampa Bay Light Lightning (Atlantic 1)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic 2)
  • Detroit Red Wings (Atlantic 3)
  • Columbus Blue Jackets (Metropolitan 1)
  • New Jersey Devils (Metropolitan 2)
  • New York Islanders (Metropolitan 3)
  • Washington Capitals (Wild Card 1)
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (Wild Card 2)

Western Conference

  • St. Louis Blues (Central 1)
  • Winnipeg Jets (Central 2)
  • Nashville Predators (Central 3)
  • Vegas Golden Knights (Pacific 1)
  • Los Angeles Kings (Pacific 2)
  • Calgary Flames (Pacific 3)
  • Vancouver Canucks (Wild Card 1)
  • Colorado Avalanche (Wild Card 2)

By the end of the year, Boston replaced Detroit and Philadelphia replaced the Islanders in the east while Minnesota, Anaheim, and San Jose went in for St. Louis, Calgary and Vancouver in the easy. But 11 for 16 is still a decent guesstimate.

These are the current standings in the east:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning (Atlantic 1)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (Atlantic 2)
  • Buffalo Sabres (Atlantic 3)
  • Columbus Blue Jackets (Metropolitan 1)
  • New York Rangers (Metropolitan 2)
  • Washington Capitals (Metropolitan 3)
  • Boston Bruins (Wild Card 1)
  • Montreal Canadiens (Wild Card 2)

The Habs have gotten themselves into a spot and are hanging on. Based on the rule, there’s a chance we see playoff hockey at the Bell Centre again. The thing is it’s not as reassuring that the team is in the second wild-card spot.

Some good teams have had bad starts and could have themselves a late-season push for the playoffs. In particular, the Pittsburgh Penguins. They’re currently 14th in conference sporting an 8-8-4 record. History has proven though never to doubt the Penguins.

Before winning the Stanley Cup in 2016, they were out of a playoff spot and turned things around once Mike Sullivan was appointed to head coach. So there’s no rest for the weary with that type of proven firepower.

The Montreal Canadiens have had their strengths but their struggles as well this season. In particular, defensive structure and education as they were two of the main reasons they lost to New Jersey. Carey Price did what he could, but had another night of facing a multitude of high-danger scoring chances.

If the Habs don’t clear that up, it’ll be difficult for them to continue to put up points regardless of how much they score.

Early point projections. dark. Next

For now, they’re in, and Marc Bergevin should try to do whatever he can to keep it that way.

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