Montreal Canadiens: Standstill with Ryan O’Reilly and the third-overall pick

Ryan O’Reilly would be a massive addition to the Montreal Canadiens, but the demand on the third-overall pick could close those doors.

Even before his name was thrown around, Ryan O’Reilly looked to be an attractive option for the Montreal Canadiens. He may not be a true number one, but the defensive responsibility, consistent offence, and success in the faceoff draft make him a key contributor on any team. Another losing season with the Buffalo Sabres has triggered GM Jason Botterill to be more active. If so, O’Reilly makes the most sense to move.

The developments on that front have gone through several updates. It came out that Buffalo may be looking for a return similar to what the Philadelphia Flyers got for Mike Richards. That deal saw the Flyers add Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds, and a second-round pick. Steep but possibly doable for the Habs.

However, it looks like things are stuck on a single add. The Sabres could easily ask for a first-round pick to any team looking to acquire O’Reilly. Pierre Lebrun wrote on four teams who would be interested in making the deal to acquire the centre. The Montreal Canadiens were obviously one of those four teams.

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In the piece, Lebrun mentioned that Buffalo may want Montreal’s first-round pick. It wouldn’t be a straight-up pick for player trade, contrary to what fans cynically believe, but the third overall could be a want from Botterill.

Bergevin has mentioned several times that there is a very slim chance the team moves on from that selection. He repeated this sentiment as early as Thursday saying:

"The third-overall pick, the chances we’re going to trade it are very, very, very small. I would be very, very surprised if we trade it."

This could trigger some innate pessimism as Bergevin has had similar quotes where it happened not too long afterwards.

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Bob McKenzie mirrored the same belief on Insider Trading Thursday night. He also mentioned that the Montreal Canadiens are hoping to try to get the deal done in some other way and the Sabres also want to add young players to grow around Rasmus Dahlin and Jack Eichel.

If that’s the case, perhaps Max Pacioretty isn’t what gets the deal done like many previously thought. Keeping O’Reilly in Buffalo makes sense as he could be a stop gap for Casey Mittelstadt as he grows into an NHL centreman. Pacioretty isn’t old by any means, but he could be outside of the age window Botterill is trying to form in a new core.

That said, Pacioretty on a line with Eichel would be lethal and may override any age limitations.

Going back to the Lebrun piece, Philadelphia and St. Louis have the assets the Sabres want and could be more willing to part with a first-rounder. The Montreal Canadiens are at a disadvantage in this battle for O’Reilly. He brings a lot of good things to the table, but Bergevin can’t afford to overpay.

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Giving up the third-overall pick definitely falls in that category. Perhaps things change as the clock clicks down to Buffalo’s podium call. And if the Montreal Canadiens do choose to part with that number three selection missing out on the chance to select Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Brady Tkachuk, hopefully it’s worth it.