Montreal Canadiens: Impact of the Oliver Ekman-Larsson extension
By Omar L
The Arizona Coyotes have agreed to terms with Oliver Ekman-Larsson which may affect how the Montreal Canadiens approach free agency.
The Montreal Canadiens are in a good spot when it comes to re-signing current players. Phillip Danault is the main priority on that front, but there’s no doubt the two camps agree to an agreement. Additionally, whatever deal it ends up being shouldn’t be too taxing on their salary cap situation.
It’s a different story when you look at other teams in the NHL. The San Jose Sharks just agreed to a big extension with Evander Kane that will see him make $7 million annually for the next seven years. The Vegas Golden Knights will have to work something out with RFA William Karlsson, and the Nashville Predators are already trying to get Ryan Ellis on a new contract.
But what’s brought signalled a lot of flames has been 2019. That offseason will have several names including Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson. If there was ever a year for stars to find new homes, that would be it as both may command a lot of dollars on the open market. Oliver Ekman-Larsson was another name set to hit UFA status at that time.
He’s been Arizona’s best defenceman, and possibly even best player, for a number of years. The talent Ekman-Larsson displays on the blueline has been a saving grace in the Coyotes’ locker room. The 26-year-old has been a 40-point player for four of the last five seasons. Additionally, he’s just as effective defensively.
The rub of this argument is that he’s seen the playoffs once in his career. It was back in 2012 when Mike Smith fought tooth and nail getting the Coyotes to the Western Conference Final. Since then, it’s been a handful of frustrating seasons with Arizona finishing in the bottom chunk of the league.
Commitment to the Plan
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The distance from the playoffs much less a Stanely Cup could’ve been what saw Ekman-Larrson change destinations. However, word was out that the star defenceman was working on an extension with the team that drafted him in 2009.
TSN‘s Darren Dreger broke the news that Ekman-Larrson and the Coyotes have verbally agreed on an eight-year extension. The deal will see him make over $8 million per year and will most likely be a max term. That’s good Arizona as turning things around for their organization would’ve been difficult without him.
However, just like every move that’s made, we have to ask ourselves what effect does this have on the rest of the league? Most importantly, does this impact the Montreal Canadiens in any way?
The Habs Angle
Directly, Ekman-Larrson staying in Arizona doesn’t do much to the Habs. If anything, it’s a threat on their roster that they’ll have to deal with for another eight years. Perhaps a deal could’ve been made if the defenceman had no desire to remain with the team. An Ekman-Larrson – Shea Weber top pair would look outstanding, but the price to pay would be substantial.
Off the top of my head, it would probably cost a first-round pick, one of Victor Mete or Noah Juulsen, and possibly two other pieces. Keep in mind that the New York Islanders got a first and two seconds for Travis Hamonic. Different players but there’s no way the Montreal Canadiens give up anything less than that for Ekman-Larrson.
What the Swede’s extension does is impact the upcoming Free Agent Frenzy. This may not be the summer for the Habs to make a splash unless it’s for John Tavares (unwavering optimism here people), but there are some defencemen who may be a fit for the future. The problem is that Ekman-Larsson’s extension drives the number up on different deals.
For example, Jon Carlson. He would’ve been a spectacular addition to the team. However, it would’ve taken a minimum $8 million AAV to make it happen. With Ekman-Larsson’s new deal, that number could reach the realm of $9 million. Carlson may have been too expensive of an asset as it is anyway.
But possible signees in Calvin de Haan and…Jack Johnson are players the Montreal Canadiens may look at.
Driving up the Price Tag
De Haan and Johnson are coming off AAV’s of $3.3 and $4,357,143 respectively. Although neither are Ekman-Larsson level, especially the latter, their ask on the open market could get an extra slab of weight to it.
It makes it a little concerning for Johnson who apparently may be a darkhorse option to sign in Montreal over the summer. Seeing as how he’s looking for a relatively big contract, it could put the Habs in trouble if they choose to hand one out to him. But that may be closer to a reality than we think.
Bob McKenzie on TSN690 says he expects Jack Johnson to get in the neighbourhood of 6M per year, give or take a million. Expects the Canadiens to be interested.
— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) June 12, 2018
De Haan, on the other hand, is a reliable puck mover who can eat up a lot of minutes. An upper-body injury held his season to only 33 games, and the Islanders definitely missed him on the blueline.
He would be the player to go for if Marc Bergevin was looking to add on July 1st. But it would have to be at the right price. If De Haan’s camp feels they can get more money via Ekman-Larsson then the Habs should look the other way.
The Montreal Canadiens would be better off standing pat on free agency and moving on with the group they have. However, if there is an opportunity to add one of those defencemen, it may cost more now than it would’ve before.