Ryan O’Reilly should be the Montreal Canadiens main target
The most realistic target for the Montreal Canadiens is Ryan O’Reilly. His two-way game and ability to put up points would be a great addition.
Everyone is excited that John Tavares is expected to hit Free Agency on July 1st. However, with so much attention on him, many forget about Ryan O’Reilly. Tavares may be the main prize, but honestly, a player of that calibre will not leave the New York Islanders. This is where O’Reilly comes into play for the Montreal Canadiens.
The Habs need to find a great centre if they want to have success in the near future. He is currently their best chance at doing that
Ryan O’Reilly should be the Habs Main target
O’Reilly is one of the most underrated centres in the NHL. In fact, there were many nights he was the best player on the ice in Buffalo. The problem is that the Sabres are in a full rebuild and want to give more ice time to their younger centres. That leaves him available on the trade market.
When thinking of how defensive-minded head coach Claude Julien runs his team, a great two-way centre like O’Reilly has to come to mind. The 27-year-old could step in and play very well in his system.
While Tavares is a superstar that would obviously take the team to the next level, however, O’Reilly isn’t as far from him as many may think.
Ryan O'Reilly is one of the best players in the NHL (and apparently one of the most underrated too) pic.twitter.com/m14rfGIINZ
— Ian Tulloch📊 (@IanGraph) May 20, 2018
This tweet by Ian Tulloch shows that O’Reilly is the eighth best player in the NHL in the goals above replacement category, a stat that indicates how many goals a player adds to their team relative to the average player. It shows just how valuable the Sabres centre is for his team.
Making the case for O’Reilly
O’Reilly has always seemed to fly under the radar. However, he is one of the best two-way centres in the NHL. He’s a consistent point-producer as he’s had at least 55 plus points since the 2011-12 season. Additionally, his $7.5 million dollar cap hit interestingly enough, is good value for a guy who produces middle-class first line centre numbers which is much better than what the Canadiens have at the moment.
Being a reliable player at both ends could allow wingers such as Alex Galchenyuk and Jonathan Drouin to focus even more on their offensive game without getting caught as often. Both players could also learn better defense from O`Reilly.
He also brings a good size down the middle and uses it while staying disciplined. O’Reilly stands at 6’1″ and 216 pounds. He rarely crosses the line as he only got two penalty minutes last season and is often in contention for the Lady Byng. O’Reilly may not be physical when using his size but he does protect the puck well.
That’s an important quality to have in today’s NHL and is something that sticks with age. This makes it more unlikely that O’Reilly will decline in his 30s. Players who protect the puck well can make for longer careers than the speedsters. Eventually, speed can fade but puck control will stay with the player for a lot longer.
The Contract
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While his cap hit over the next five years may seem like a lot, it isn’t as bad as it seems. With the cap going up each year, the contract will become less and less heavy for a team to carry. Not to mention, if O’Reilly is still producing 55-65 point seasons into his 30s, it could be a great contract.
There are players like Ryan Johansen who put up 54 points while making $8 million. Personally, I’d rather have O’Reilly who is only two years older than Johansen. He is also much better defensively.
Adding on to that, If the Montreal Canadiens manage to find a gem of a centre in the draft in upcoming years, he will also help mentor the player.
Think of O’Reilly as a bigger more offensive version of Tomas Plekanec in his prime. He is also one of the league’s best face off men. Putting those qualities together should be able to justify the length and value of his deal.
Making sense of a possible trade
The Montreal Canadiens may need to overpay a little bit to get a player of O’Reilly’s calibre, due to their need at centre. Therefore, it will likely start with a young player such as Nikita Scherbak and a good roster player like Max Pacioretty. It will also take one or two of the four second round picks that the Habs have in the 2018 NHL Entry draft.
If the Sabres still don’t agree, it may take adding a B level defensive prospect such as Cale Fleury or Rinat Valiev‘s rights to the deal.
It’s obvious that O’Reilly fits the Montreal Canadiens needs down the middle, now let’s explain why the deal would be good for the Sabres.
Getting rid of O’Reilly and his contract, allows them the opportunity to give prospect Casey Middlestadt a chance to play centre in the top six.
What Pacioretty would bring to the table is a reliable goal-scorer for at least a season to play alongside Jack Eichel. As for Scherbak, he provides good depth right now with the potential to be a solid top-six forward in the future. He will fit in well on a rebuilding team like the Buffalo Sabres. As for the picks, it will give the Sabres the chance to pick an extra player or two in a deep draft.
If Valiev or Fleury need to be added to the deal, Buffalo gets some much-needed defensive prospects who will likely be able to play a regular role in the NHL.
The trade from the Habs side
The Montreal Canadiens will likely not be able to afford the five-time 30-goal scorer as Pacioretty may command over $8 million per year. Therefore, trading him to help the team in the long run is the best thing to do. The Habs could potentially also replace Pacioretty, with one of Andrei Svechnikov or Filip Zadina with the third pick in this year’s draft.
Related Story: Drafting Zadina Will Force a Pacioretty Trade
While losing Scherbak may be tough due to his untapped potential, getting that centre after 20+ years without a number one will be worth it. Let’s face the facts, Tavares will not want to voluntarily come to Montreal. This is a city where players get criticized openly for every mistake.
Next: Four teams to get a 2nd first-rounder from
Tavares is not alone, the truth is the Montreal Canadiens either need to draft or trade for a number one centre. Ryan O’Reilly is the Canadiens best hope this off-season at finding one.