Montreal Canadiens: The Slow Start Will Have Dire Consequences

The Montreal Canadiens start to the 2017-18 season will have a huge impact on their chances to be one of the Eastern Conference teams to make the playoffs.

The Montreal Canadiens are off to a dismal 1-6-1 start. I’m hearing many different opinions about it. It’s too early. The season is over. There’s still time. There’s no time left. This isn’t really them. This is the team. The early schedule is difficult. They need more home games.

All valid points I suppose, but the bottom line is that the Habs have garnered a measly three points out of a possible sixteen. That’s .187 hockey. Yikes. This translates to a 31-point regular season finish. Yeesh.

When Montreal had their hot 9-0-1 start to their 2016-17 season, everyone knew it would not last nor was it sustainable. Everyone was right and they couldn’t keep it going. Thanks Captain Obvious.

What about now? It has only been eight games and about ninety percent of the year is left. The season is not even three weeks old! However, is it still too early to think that the team is this bad? I think we need to try to figure out just who the Montreal Canadiens are and see if it if being eight games in means anything.

Let’s Do Some Math

Math?! Don’t worry, no fancy stats here. Are they the Habs this current .187 hockey team? Will they continue to average 1.62 goals for per game — on pace for a 133 goal regular season total? Will they continue chugging along at an alarmingly horrible, considering their personnel, 9.4% power play? Is a 3.9% shooting percentage something that will continue?

Will Carey Price continue being the latest incarnation of David Aebischer?

The obvious answers are no. Things should turn around, by how much is the question fans want to know.

Last Year’s Team

What a difference a year makes. They roared off to the aforementioned record-setting 9-0-1, .950 start last season. The Habs finished that 2016-17 regular season with a 47-26-9 record, good for 103 points, a .628 winning percentage.

After those first 10 games, the Canadiens had a 38-26-8 record (.583 winning percentage) in the final 72. It’s possible Montreal is somewhere between a .583 and .628 team. Let’s dig a little deeper.

The playoffs saw the Habs lose to the New York Rangers in six games. As we know, so far this season the Habs have played eight games, sporting a 1-6-1 record. Six playoff games and eight regular season games, gives a fourteen game total.

So let’s take away those record-setting first 10 games of the 2016-17 season and add the fourteen game total from the six playoff games and the eight regular season games so far. Still with me? This is leading somewhere, trust me.

Adding those 14 games to the final 72 gives us an 86 game total – just slightly over the length of a regular, a good sample size I’d say. So how did the Habs look in their last 86 games played? The Habs have a 41-36-9 record, .529 hockey. That would translate to an 89-point regular season.

Impact of a New Coach

One might say, “Hang on there, Kamal. Montreal is a different team now that they have Claude Julien. Michel Therrien was terrible.”

Well, yes, they are a different team. So let’s look at what Claude has done since taking over La Sainte-Flanelle. Julien coached the final 24 games of the regular season and guided the Habs to a very good 16-7-1 record (.688 hockey).

We know about the 2-4 playoff record and the current 1-6-1 regular season record. Therefore, through 38 games coached by Claude Julien, the Habs are 19-17-2 (.526 hockey). This works out to an 86 point regular season.

This is not good if you want the Montreal Canadiens to make the playoffs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWt8FZEuoFg&feature=youtu.be

The last three years the average lowest point total to get into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference was 95 points. By the look of how Montreal is trending, they will need every point they can get. Each subsequent loss is having dire consequences on Montreal’s playoff hopes – be it October or not.

This little storm they went through was just a zombified polar bear. The way Montreal is playing right now, 95 points and .579 hockey looks like Mount Everest and the Habs have all been hit by Ulf Samuelsson. Again though this can’t last…can it?

The Schedule

Has the storm finished though? There’s a lot more coming. This little blip on the radar that the Montreal Candiens see ahead of them is actually a bunch of F-15 fighters doing their best to shoot down their playoff hopes.

The next three games see them at home versus the Panthers, Kings, and Rangers. Not pushovers at all. They then embark on a four game road trip against the Senators, Wild, Jets and Blackhawks. Hooray! Steve Mason is on the horizon!

I’m not one to blame the schedule, but it’s not looking good. Many of these teams are better than the Habs and would easily be the considered the favourite. The Habs must feel like Jon Snow standing on a small ice island with a whole bunch of white walkers patiently waiting for the ice to freeze.

Every Game is Important

Am I blowing this out of proportion? Yes there are a lot of games left. However, the math and the schedule say that this is quite possibly one of the most important eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth…(you get the idea), games of the season in a long time.

I for one am not liking what is trending and what the math is showing me. A single victory over the Florida Panthers will be a huge boost in confidence, but it may just be a single sandbag attempting to stop the surging flood of losses to come.

Not only do early games matter but thanks to the Habs’ performance in said early games, the rest of the season itself is very important.

Next: What the New Lines Can Do

Kamal Rehman is also the co-host and writer of the HabsFan vs LeafsFan podcast, a FanSided Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs show on Blog Talk Radio. You can also follow him on Twitter at @HabsVsLeafs and @kamalrehman10.

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