Montreal Canadiens: The Numbers Say This Won’t Last

It looks like all hope is lost for the Montreal Canadiens at the moment, but this won’t last forever and the numbers around the team agree.

There’s negativity all around the Montreal Canadiens. The team is playing far from it’s best, Carey Price is having some early struggles, and other individuals have yet to step up. Many have it in their heads that the season is done already. Sure they’re last in the Eastern Conference, but other teams are underperforming as well. That could be the saving grace the team needs to climb in the standings.

Despite that, there’s still a strong belief that this is the team. That this “mediocre bunch” is what fans will be seeing for the rest of the season. Who knows, we aren’t psychic, but a team with this much talent, although some haven’t done anything, can’t be this bad.

If you still think that this won’t change, the numbers around the Montreal Canadiens say otherwise.

Related Story: A Bad Price is Good for the Team

The Power of Analytics

Advanced stats have slowly become a go-to source of information in the NHL for the last number of years. Teams have been using it as supplementary aid to help improve their teams. Of course whatever the analytics tells you isn’t the only result, but it does provide insight into an aspect of a team’s performance.

There’s a specific stat that I’ve come across in my own studies of Analytics (via Rob Vollman’s, “Stat Shot“) that could give some Montreal Canadiens fans a little reassurance. PDO, also referred to as SPSV%, is a team’s on-ice shooting percentage plus on-ice save percentage. In a nutshell, it accounts for a team’s goal differential and whether the success they have had is sustainable or not. A stat like this comes into play a lot when a club is going on a ridiculous streak and analysts try to figure out if that is what they are or if they just got really hot.

More from Editorials

• Montreal Canadiens: Senators Rebuild At Crisis Point As Kent Hughes Moves Forward
• Montreal Canadiens: Jonathan Drouin Continues Charity Work In Montreal After Leaving Habs
• Montreal Canadiens: Laval Rocket Lineup Going To Be Must Watch
• Montreal Canadiens: Jesse Ylönen Contract Extension Analysis
• Montreal Canadiens: Top 31 Prospects – #31 Quentin Miller

PDO will always be around 100. If a team is far above that, it indicates that a lot of luck is going for them. At the other end of the spectrum, a PDO  significantly below hints that the bounces are continuously going against them. According to Corsica.com, the Habs are last in the NHL in that category with a 91.21!!!

This isn’t to say that the criticism around the team isn’t right. Again, this is just more information to show that they are neck-deep in bad luck. However, Montreal has to change their fate and play better. Things aren’t going to be different on their own and then POOF, they’re a top team in the East again. Their PDO could eventually get back to that 100 range while they remain a bottom feeder in the league. The only way they break out of this is if they put in the work themselves.

Michael McCarron and Nikita Scherbak were both recalled from the Laval Rocket yesterday and that could help spark some offence on the team. Hockey minds always talk about moments in the season where a team has to face adversity. It’s early in the season, but this seems to be Montreal’s at the moment. They can either let it consume them or find a way to fight through it. We’ll have to see which route they decide to take.

Next: Max Pacioretty and the Edmonton Oilers

What do you make of the PDO for the Montreal Canadiens? Does it mean anything to you? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.