After dying down in recent weeks, trade rumors and speculation have swept over the internet regarding Subban’s future with the Canadiens.
No matter where or when, it seems P.K. Subban is constantly in the media. And why not? He’s a very likable personality who gives good interviews and is loved by the fans.
However, Subban’s name has been in the media because of his no movement clause kicking in on July 1st. Due to this, many have been speculating that the Canadiens will or already are shopping the star defender. Or they’re at least “listening” to trade offers.
The key word should be “listening” but the moment you mention “trade”, the imaginations of people begin to run wild and rampant. This all really fired back up after a series of tweets from ESPN’s Pierre Lebrun.
Hearing that volume of calls has increased significantly for the Habs from other teams re: P.K. Subban in last 48 hours. What that means?
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) June 22, 2016
Canadiens are not shopping Subban but other teams are indeed calling and more frequently as July 1 no-movement clause approaches...
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) June 22, 2016
Is there really a deal that would make Marc Bergevin blink? Pretty hard to replace a player like Subban. But some teams desperate for top D
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) June 22, 2016
Again, not suggesting the Habs will trade Subban. Just relaying that teams are calling more frequently now that July 1 no-move is closer...
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) June 22, 2016
I trust Lebrun and he really didn’t suggest anything. All he did was relay what was told to him from his sources. And really, what GM wouldn’t inquire about Subban? He’s one of the best defencemen in the NHL and a player any team would love to have.
But it was that 3rd tweet that really got me thinking. If Bergevin really did do the unthinkable and traded Subban, what kind of offer would it take to make him do it? And whoever is trading for Subban would absolutely have to knock Bergevin’s socks off and if they’re desperate for a top end defender, they’ll have to pay a premium and then some.
Trade Partners and Scenarios
Every team in the league would likely call up Bergevin about Subban but only a few would likely be willing to meet the absurd asking price. The most likely trade partner appears to be the Edmonton Oilers.
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The Colorado Avalanche are known to be looking for a top defenceman as well. Darren Dreger also mentioned the Vancouver Canucks as a possible partner. I question the fit between Montreal and Vancouver and don’t see them as a logical Subban destination.
The Oilers and Avalanche could be options for a hypothetical Subban trade. But the caveat here is that whoever the Canadiens trade Subban to will have to be both desperate and willing to completely overpay for Subban. So let’s take a look at some hypothetical trade scenarios.
Edmonton Oilers
Oilers get: P.K. Subban, 9th overall pick
Canadiens get: Taylor Hall, Oscar Klefbom, 4th Overall pick
This appears to be a rather large over payment by the Oilers and it likely is. But it’s going to take a massive over payment to convince the Canadiens to let Subban go.
The money in this trade is fairly even($10.167 vs $9.0). The Canadiens get a top end goal scorer and a very good young defenceman. I’m a big fan of Klefbom but his injury history is a little concerning. But if he can stay healthy, he’s a very good top 4 defenceman who should one day become a top pairing defender.
The swapping of 1st round picks allows the Canadiens to draft Pierre-Luc Dubois and add a big center with a high ceiling to the organization.
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche get: P.K. Subban
Canadiens get: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie, Nikita Zadorov
Duchene’s name has been in the rumor mill again and Darren Dreger mentioned that Joe Sakic would listen to any player as long as it was part of something big. Well, what’s bigger than a P.K. Subban deal?
Duchene is only 25 and a very talented player. Having him and Galchenyuk as the #1 and #2 centers make the Canadiens forward group very deep.
Tyson Barrie is a very good defenceman and would help fill Subban’s void better than Klefbom. Saying that, any trade would be contingent on Barrie willing to sign a long term deal at a reasonable cost with the Canadiens.
Zadorov is a throw in but he’s really not. He’s a former 1st round pick, he’s just 21 and he’s huge(6-5, 220). He definitely has a future as a shutdown NHL defender.
Next: Canadiens Re-Sign Defenceman Joel Hanley
Final Thoughts
I don’t see any team willing to meet what should be an absurd asking price on Subban. I understand that it is in a GM’s best interest to listen to what teams offer.
However, unless the Canadiens are clear cut winners in the trade and receive a top 4 defenceman in return, I believe the Canadiens need to keep Subban and let him do his thing. Forcing a trade just won’t work and will end up setting this team back another 10 years.