Canadiens: A Case For Trading Down in the Draft

In what has been described as a very deep draft, the Canadiens could open up more possibilities by trading down in the draft.

The draft is essentially a giant lottery. Obviously it takes skill and knowledge to select the right players but a fair amount of luck goes into it as well. And just like a lottery, the more picks you have, the better your odds of getting an impact player.

As it stands right now, the Montreal Canadiens are slated to have 7 selections in the upcoming draft. They have a 1st(9th), two 2nd’s(39th, 45th), a 3rd(70th), a 4th(100th), a 5th(124th) and a 6th(160th).

The Canadiens already have a good start as they possess three of the first 45 picks. The last time the Canadiens had this many picks so early was in 2013. In that draft they took Michael McCarron 20th, Jacob de La Rose 34th, Zachary Fucale 36th and Artturi Lehkonen 55th. All 4 of those players are currently top prospects within the system and all have high ceilings.

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So how can Montreal add more picks to their arsenal? That’s easy. They can trade down.

Working for and against Montreal in a trade down scenario is the talent drop off isn’t as severe as in past years. This draft is by all accounts fairly deep. This works for the Canadiens in that they can trade down from 9th and not really have a noticeable difference in the prospect they select. However, at the same time it works against Montreal as other teams may not want to move up for the exact same reasons.

Last year, their were eight trades involving 1st round picks. Four of those trades involved established NHL players while the other four were pick for pick trades. The earliest pick that was dealt was the 13th overall selection that was part of the Milan Lucic/Martin Jones trade.

Interestingly, the last top 10 pick that was traded on draft day was in 2013 when the New Jersey Devils traded the 9th pick(Bo Horvat) to Vancouver for Cory Schenider***. That tells you just how much teams value top 10 picks.

Trade Expectations/Scenarios

The last time a team with a top 10 pick decided to trade down occurred at the 2008 draft. The New York Islanders traded the 5th pick to Toronto for the 7th pick, 68th pick and a 2009 2nd round pick. The Islanders then traded the 7th pick to Nashville for the 9th pick and the 40th pick.

The value was certainly less 8 years ago than what we saw with the Schneider trade.These picks do not get traded often and when they do, recent history has shown us they can get expensive.

If I’m Marc Bergevin and I’m looking to trade down in the draft, I’d target teams that have been hoarding draft picks. After careful consideration, I think Carolina would be a prime target to trade with.

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The Canes own the 13th, 21st, 43rd, 50th, 67th, 74th and 75th picks plus four more in rounds 4-7. They’re pretty loaded in draft picks. They also had a bit of bad luck on their side with a league leading 16 OT and shootout losses. That was the only reason they are not picking inside the top 10.

The Canes are rebuilding and as such, could be willing to pay the price to move up. I don’t believe the Canes would be willing to pay a premium price to move up 4 spots. I also don’t believe that Bergevin and the Canadiens would be willing to fall all the way to 21st without getting a serious addition to the NHL roster.

There is a fit here for a potential trade down for the Canadiens. A potential trade would involve some moving parts and could become something bigger. If the Canadiens have a specific draft target in mind though and feel they can get him at a lower spot, trading down could prove fruitful.

***Editor’s Note: The Ottawa Senators traded what ended up being the 10th overall pick in 2014 in the Bobby Ryan trade but that trade occurred on July 5th, 2013***