Why a trade up with the Edmonton Oilers to aquire the 4th overall pick will cost to much, and will hurt the Habs years down the road.
Trade speculation swirling around the Montreal Canadiens will be picking at 9th overall in this years draft, and the Edmonton Oilers, who are picking 4th. The two teams have been linked together right after the Draft Lottery, to swap their first round picks and core players on each team.
At first glance this could sound very enticing, from the Habs perspective, to trade up and acquire a top 5 talent like Matthew Tkachuck of the London Knights, or Pierre Luc Debois of the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles. The reality is, what is the cost to trade up? What roster players would you have to give up in order to make the trade?
Trade Rumor 1: Montreal trading P.K Subban and possibly the 9th pick to the Oilers for Taylor Hall and the 4th pick, possibly other players.
P.K Subban is an elite talent who has won a Norris Trophy and been nominated for another. Subban averaged 0.75 points per game this season, which is nearly the same as Taylor Hall, who posted 0.79 points per game, and Hall would be brought in to increase the offence? Subban can provide the same offensive impact that Taylor Hall can, and on top of it all, Subban plays Defence at an elite level.
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Then there would also be the question of where would Taylor Hall, who plays Left Wing, fit in the Habs lineup? Montreal already has a top scoring threat, in Max Pacioretty, on the Left Wing. Pacioretty has had more success in goal scoring than Hall, outscoring Hall 106 to 67 over the last three seasons. This trade would mean moving one of the league’s top defensemen for Taylor Hall who would probably fit in on the Habs second line.
Even though the Habs and Oilers would be swapping picks, and maybe landing a more pro ready prospect, the player the Canadiens land at 9th overall will probably have similar potential as someone picked at 4th overall anyway. Plus this move would leave a massive hole on defense for the Canadiens which would make the cost of this trade is way too high from the Canadiens point of view.
Trade Rumor 2: Habs trading Nathan Beaulieu and 9th overall pick (possibly their second round picks) for the 4th overall pick.
This trade doesn’t appear to impact the Canadiens roster right away. However this move could hurt the Canadiens a year or two down the road. Leaving gaps in the roster and forcing the Canadiens to make a series of bandage moves to fix the roster. As the team would probably move up in the draft to get a forward.
The Canadiens are hoping that Nathan Beaulieu can continue to develop as a top four defencemen who could eventually replace the aging Andrei Markov on the teams top pairing next to Subban. The Canadiens don’t have any other top defensive prospects that shoot left, like Beaulieu does. This would mean the Habs would be forced to engage in Free Agency, and probably overspend on a regressing top 4 Free Agent defensemen.
If the Canadiens were to stay with the 9th overall pick they would be more likely to fill a need in the future. Defense prospects like Jakub Chychrun of the Sarnia Sting, Oli Juolevi of the London Knights, Mikhail Sergachev of the Windsor Spitfires, and Jake Bean of the Calgary Hitman could be available when Montreal picks.
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Also, all of these defensemen listed shoot left and could step in if Markov were to leave the team after next season. This would leave the Canadiens having a top 4 defense corps of P.K Subban, Nathan Beaulieu, Jeff Petry, and one of those previously mentioned prospects, which would potentially make a solid top 4 unit for the Habs.
By Montreal not moving their second round picks, they could be able to land offensive minded prospects who play center. Montreal could develop these players for a couple of seasons, and then they could be able to play when Tomas Plekanec‘s contract ends with the team in 2 years. By keeping their two second round picks, the Habs will be adding much needed depth to their team.
By trading up the Canadiens would land one great prospect, but by staying where they are in the draft, they will be able to address important needs, and keep building for the future with a wealth of young talent.
The Canadiens should not make an attempt to swap draft picks and players with the Oilers to move up in the draft, because it would cost way too much, and hurt their roster down the road.