The Canadiens quest for offensive help could lead them into the Steven Stamkos sweepstakes.
Full disclosure: If the Montreal Canadiens enter the Stamkos frenzy, they will need to shed salary. This would lead to some difficult roster decisions and I will break that down further into this article.
Now, who exactly is Steven Stamkos and why would the Montreal Canadiens be interested? Well, for starters, Stamkos is a 26 year old right-handed centerman who has won two Rocket Richard Trophies for leading the league in goal scoring.
Drafted 1st overall in the 2008 Draft, Stamkos entered the league as an 18 year old and over the past 8 seasons has done nothing but produce. His resume includes: a 60 goal season, three 90 point seasons and he has never scored less than 23 goals in a season.
Since 2008-09, Stamkos ranks among the very best in the NHL. He’s 2nd in goals(312), 9th in points(562), 8th in Points Per Game(0.99), 2nd in Power Play Goals(108), 8th in Power Play Points(198) and 7th in Game Winning Goals(47). As you can see, Stamkos is a legit NHL superstar.
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With all of Stamkos’ regular-season accolades, he is not without his flaws. As a true #1 center, Stamkos’ face off ability does lack in some regard. He’s a career 47.7% in the dot and has never posted a 50% success rate though he was at 49.9% this season.
His playoff performance has also been put into question. While Stamkos’ regular season points per game sits at 0.99, that number takes a noticeable dip to 0.72 come playoff time. In his defense though, he has only been to the playoffs three times totaling 48 games.
How He Fits the Canadiens
1st line center. Plain and simple.
As good as Galchenyuk was this season and as much potential as he has, he will in all likelihood never reach Stamkos’ level. This is not a knock on Galchneyuk but rather, a testament to just how good Stamkos is.
Having Stamkos as the 1st line center and Galchneyuk on the 2nd line, it would give Montreal the type of center depth they have lacked for over 20 years.
As shown above, Stamkos’ prowess on the power play is well-documented. That ability, coupled with the creativity of players like P.K. Subban, would solve nearly all of Montreal’s power play woes. An interesting tidbit, despite a below-average career face off mark, Stamkos has a 52.7% success rate when taking face offs on the man-advantage.
The Potential Cost for Canadiens & Roster Repercussions
As an unrestricted free agent, Stamkos is going to be the most coveted free agent this season and arguably in history. As such, he is going to be paid an absolute premium over a 7 year contract. When trying to figure out what
“premium” means in this sense, think $10 million per season minimum with a chance that he could get upwards of $12 million if someone gets really desperate.
Stamkos recently had surgery to address a blood clot issue caused by Vascular Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. The recovery time table has been estimated at 1 to 3 months. By all accounts, Stamkos should make a full recovery and should be better than ever.
So at $10 million or more over 7 years, how would the Canadiens fit Stamkos in their cap? Not easily.
The Salary Cap could go up as much as $3 million this off-season, reaching $74.5 million. The Canadiens have nearly $65 million already committed to the 2016-17 season and have as many as 10 Restricted Free Agents to potentially re-sign. In order to fit Stamkos and have enough cap space for potential in-season moves, Montreal would need to shed salary.
The first, and likely most valuable, asset the Canadiens would look to move is Tomas Plekanec. At a $6 million cap hit and his track record of consistent play, Plekanec would easily give Montreal the best return of any trade. I don’t believe the Canadiens would necessarily have to trade Plekanec and could easily deploy him as 3rd line center for one more season before shipping him out to re-sign Galchneyuk next year.
Likely the most popular name to move would be David Desharnais and his $3.5 million cap hit. Any expectation of a quality return should be dismissed as Desharnais would be moved purely to relieve his cap hit. Not only is he coming off his worst NHL season, he is also the biggest scapegoat for all of the Canadiens’ struggles, thus limiting his value.
Alexei Emelin would be another candidate to be moved. The hard-hitting Russian had a nice bounce back season but carries a $4.1 million cap hit and may not have a spot in the Canadiens top 4 with the emergence of Nathan Beaulieu.
If dealt, the Canadiens do have a potential replacement in-house with Mark Barberio. He may not provide the same level of physicality but is much more mobile and would come in at a fraction of the cost.
Next: Canadiens Off-Season Target: Andrew Ladd
Lars Eller could be another potential roster casualty. Eller has long been touted as a player with loads of potential but he’s going to be 27 years old and has almost 450 NHL games under his belt. At this point, he is what he is and that is a bottom-6 center who will chip in 25 points a season. At $3.5 million and if Plekanec is retained, Eller becomes a very expensive luxury on the 4th line.
The last option to save cap space would be to move the longest-tenured Canadiens player, Andrei Markov. At $5.75 million and his long record of offensive production, Markov could be the best defender available with such a thin free agent market. This move would be bittersweet as many have wanted Markov to retire as a lifelong Canadiens player but acquiring Stamkos would certainly ease that departure.
No matter what happens, the introduction to Stamkos to this roster would have Canadiens fans quickly forgetting who was moved out.