Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning Could Be Ideal Trade Partners

The Montreal Canadiens will be looking to buy at the trade deadline. The Tampa Bay Lightning surprisingly sit last in the East and may be looking to sell. The Habs and Bolts could make ideal trading partners.

The Montreal Canadiens have been atop the Atlantic Division standings since the puck dropped on opening night. They are running away from the pack inside their own grouping. With the trade deadline now about five weeks away, we can safely call the Habs a “buyer.”

With three point games, the salary cap and the death of the dynasty around the National Hockey League, there aren’t as many “sellers” as there used to be. When teams are getting points for losing makes it difficult for them to fall out of the race.

However, when you look at the bottom of the standings, you are sure to find at least a few teams that know they aren’t going to make the playoffs this season. Then you take a look at their cap situation and whose contracts are running out to try and find the perfect “rental” for the Habs.

Tampa Bay having an unexpected down season & could be sellers

However, it was quite shocking to see the Tampa Bay Lightning in last place in the Eastern Conference this morning. That’s right, everyone’s (no including Montreal fans) favourite choice to represent the East in the Stanley Cup Final is in the cellar more than halfway through the season.

Now, the Lightning are an extremely talented team and can’t be written off just yet. They are only five points out of a playoff spot, but they have also played more games than most teams. However, with teams that lose getting a point in many games, it’s extremely difficult to make up ground in the NHL.

Tampa is already at the 48 game mark and have only accumulated 47 points. Based on Micah Blake McCurdy’s (otherwise known as @Ineffectivemath on twitter) projections, it’s going to take at least 91 points to get into the playoffs. That means the Lightning need 44 points in 34 games to have a realistic shot.

That’s a 22-12-0 record. Or, since you have to factor in points for losing, 20-10-4. Not impossible, but a huge turnaround from what Tampa has done in the first 48 games of the season.

Lightning have reasons beyond the standings to sell forwards

Anyway, long story short, the Lightning could very well be sellers. They also have a little bit of extra incentive to sell off a piece or two this season.

First of all is the salary cap. Dynasty teams are dead for a reason in the NHL and that is because you simply can’t afford to keep everyone anymore. The Lightning will surely lose goaltender Ben Bishop this summer as he is a free agent.

However, they also have to find room to re-sign Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson and to a lesser extent Nikita Nesterov and Andrej Sustr on the back end. They have to try to squeeze these players in with a little bit more than $12 million in cap space.

Also, the Lightning must be very worried about the impending expansion draft. Teams can protect seven forwards, three defencemen and one goaltender. Tampa has to protect Ryan Callahan and Valtteri Filppula due to their no-movement clauses. They are also sure to keep Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Palat, Johnson and Drouin.

Losing Killorn or Namestnikov to Vegas is not an option for Bolts

This would leave Alex Killorn and Vladislav Namestnikov ripe for the picking by the Vegas Golden Knights (Trademark pending – maybe look into getting a trademark before naming an NHL team?). Anyway, obviously the Bolts don’t want to lose a good, young forward for nothing.

So how do they avoid losing Killorn or Namestnikov to expansion? The only way is to trade away a pair of forwards. If the Lightning are resigned to the fact they are going to miss the playoffs, they may as well start selling these forwards now.

Based on his cap hit, the Lightning would probably prefer to move Filppula. The Canadiens could do worse than adding the 32 year old playmaking center. Montreal has a vast hole behind Alex Galchenyuk down the middle and could use a playmaker between snipers Artturi Lehkonen and Brendan Gallagher.

Filppula could fill that void. He’s having a decent year with seven goals and 30 points in 46 games. That’s a 53 point pace, which is much better than any option the Habs currently have at second line center.

Filppula would fit on paper, maybe not on payroll

The problem is fitting his $5 million cap hit in next season. If he were a free agent this summer, I’d say go for it. However, the Habs have to find room to re-sign Galchenyuk, Alex Radulov and Nathan Beaulieu next season. Bringing in Filppula would be a great upgrade for this year, but may be too risky long-term.

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The Habs could also be interested in Namestnikov. The super-skilled Russian center has 19 points in 44 games this season. They aren’t exactly eye-popping numbers, but he’s buried on a deep roster. The 23 year old is 9th among Lightning forwards in ice time and 8th among their forwards in ice time on the power play.

Namestnikov would play a bigger offensive role with the Habs and could see his point totals skyrocket if given the opportunity. He bounces all over the Lightning lineup. Going from first line to third line and from center to wing. A more stable situation as a constant second line center would see him score more consistently as well.

Acquiring Filppula or Namestnikov wouldn’t come at a huge cost either. Neither are really core players for the Lightning. The team needs to shed some salary cap and could do so by moving Filppula. They also don’t want to lose Namestnikov for nothing, so would be happy to get something for him before Vegas grabs him.

The Habs have a pair of second round picks this summer and three in the 2018 draft. Any one of those picks should be enough to grab Namestnikov. Filppula, due to his huge cap hit, would probably come for even cheaper.

Bergevin looking for something bigger than Namestnikov?

Sure, Namestnikov would be a good buy. However, there is reason to believe, since the P.K. Subban for Shea Weber trade, that the Canadiens general manger is going “big-game” hunting this season.

This team is certainly in go-for-it mode and have been rumoured to be “all-in” according to insiders around the NHL. If this is true and Bergevin wants to add a great second line center instead of a good one, maybe they ask about Tyler Johnson?

He’s a restricted free agent at season’s end, and the Lightning may not be able to afford him. They still have Steven Stamkos, Filppula and Namestnikov down the middle. Brian Boyle is also there for now but is a free agent. Brayden Point is a young player who could fill a top three center role next season as well.

There’s plenty of depth at center, so the Lightning would be forced to consider trading Johnson when they run out of cap room. He’s had a 70 point season in the past, but hasn’t put up huge numbers in the past two regular seasons.

Johnson’s been one of best playoff players last two seasons

The American center has 27 points in 48 games this season. He put up just 38 points in 69 games a year ago. However, he has proven to play his best hockey when the playoffs begin. He had 17 points in 17 postseason games last season and 23 in 26 games the previous spring.

With that kind of playoff pedigree, it would cost a lot for the Habs to land Johnson. Especially considering the Lighting and Canadiens are division rivals. However, if the Lightning are realistic about their cap problem and don’t want to lose a good young forward for nothing in the expansion draft, they’d have to consider it.

Tampa would certainly be in the market for a young defender. Montreal may be able to move Nathan Beaulieu since Mikhail Sergachev could be ready to replace him next season. They could add one of their young, skilled forwards like Charles Hudon and one of their many draft picks in the next two drafts.

Trade Proposal

If you are getting “regular season” Johnson, it’s too much for the Habs to give up. If they are getting “playoff” Johnson, it’s probably not enough. Perhaps the Habs put conditions on the pick as well. We’ve seen this a lot lately. If the Habs get to the Conference Finals it’s a first round pick, otherwise it’s a second.

I’m guessing Habs fans will think it’s too much, but Lightning fans would probably say they want more for Johnson. That would suggest it’s a fair trade for both sides.

It is a lot to give up, but both teams are taking a risk. The Habs lose a blossoming top four defenceman, a solid prospect and possibly a first round pick. However, they may be getting the 2017 playoff scoring leader.

Next: Habs Get Bad News, Good News On Injuries

It would be interesting to see the Lightning as a seller this season. They have tough choices to make before expansion with the salary cap tightening up on them. Could a division rival like the Canadiens benefit? It would cost a lot to entice Tampa to make a deal in division, but it could pay off with the 25th Stanley Cup banner hanging in the rafter at the Bell Centre.

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