Montreal Canadiens: Could Mike Condon Take Habs Above 110 Pts?

There’s a level of assertiveness in Montreal’s play that hasn’t been seen in this city for a very long time. Carey Price is looking more focused on winning that ever, the team is firing on all cylinders and has found secondary scoring avenues, and their backup goaltender seems poised to help them reach a new level. What a great start to the season this is.

Dustin Tokarski

Last season’s backup goaltender was Dustin Tokarski. While he wasn’t the greatest backup in the NHL, he also wasn’t the worst. He managed the following stats last year:

	Goalie Stats
Season	Age	W	L	T/O	SV%	GAA	QS	QS%	GPS
2014-15	25	6	6	4	.910	2.75	8	.500	2.7

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/13/2015.

There’s nothing really wrong with those stats. When you consider his QS%, he gave the Habs a 50/50 shot of winning every game and that’s exactly what they won when he was in net. His .910 save% was solid enough for the Habs to compete when he was in net.

The problem with Tokarski’s play was that it was mediocre at best. He could have provided the Habs with similar play this year, but were the Habs going to be happy settling with mediocre? In a season that has them chasing a Stanley Cup? I certainly hope not.

This is not an article aimed at bashing Tokarski as a backup. In many ways, Tokarski was thrown into the fire much too quickly as a Hab. Here was a guy who had started 10 games before the 2013-14 playoffs began (half with the TBL) and was asked to take over from Carey Price in the playoffs, ultimately playing 5 games to great results overall despite Montreal’s loss. No goaltender should be asked to cary the load on the playoffs without enough regular season experience to use.

It’s quite possible that Dustin Tokarski winds up finding his best game while playing in the AHL and returns to the NHL with a vengeance.

Oct 11, 2015; Ottawa, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators center

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

(44) shoots the puck against Montreal Canadiens goalie Mike Condon (39) in the second period at Canadian Tire Centre. Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports

But back in Montreal, in comes Mike Condon, oozing of confidence and poise throughout training camp, pre-season, and through his first start of the season. He earns his first win in the NHL at 25 years old, stopping 20 of 21 shots, good enough for a .957 save%. His game is mature, well founded technically, and he’s had two full seasons as the #1 goaltender in the ECHL and AHL respectively to get used to carrying a heavy burden. It’s amazing to me that he managed a .921 save% in Hamilton since the team really had a hard time winning.

The questions that Mike Condon brings to the Habs are these: can he provide a better season’s performance than Tokarski provided last season, and will it be enough to help take the Habs above the 110 point mark?

We won’t know the answer to these questions until the end of the season, but from what I’ve seen out of both over the last 2 seasons, there’s little doubt in my mind that Condon is better equipped to backup Carey Price and better positioned to help them exceed the 110 point mark.

If we assume that Mike Condon makes the same number of starts (16) as Dustin Tokarski managed in 2014-15, Condon will have a significant impact on how well the Habs season rounds out. With what I consider to be a better defensive corps in front of him and more support offensively from the forwards, there’s little doubt the Habs may support Condon more than they supported Tokarski in 2014-15. Add in the focus on the Stanley Cup that they all seem to have this season, and you’ve got something impressive overall.

What Mike Condon brings to the Habs is a slight edge in goaltending to ensure they have a 60-70% chance of winning with his minding net in comparison to Tokarski. That may not seem like much on the surface, but over the course of a season, 70% would it would results in 11 wins this season over 16 starts, a marked improvement over Tokarski’s 6. That’s an extra 10 points in the standings, a significant increase. Even an extra 4 to 6 points could help ensure the Habs enjoy home-ice advantage in the playoffs, something the Habs would love to have.

Mike Condon has a chance to be one of the many difference makers this season. If he continues on the path he has started on this year, it’s going to be a memorable one! What do you think? Will Mike Condon help get the Habs passed the 110 point mark?

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